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铁矿石期货日报-20251119
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 13:31
Report Overview - Research Variety: Iron ore - Report Cycle: Daily - Date of Report: November 17, 2025 - Research Analyst: Feng Jiayu [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On November 17, 2025, the iron ore futures market had prices rising in an upward - trending oscillation. The price increase was driven by rising macro - policy expectations and short - term demand recovery. However, the fundamental situation of iron ore has not fundamentally improved, and the market is in a structural game. Short - term prices are supported by policy expectations and a phased increase in demand, while medium - to long - term prices face pressure from a continuous supply surplus, shrinking steel mill profits, and high port inventories. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 750 - 820 yuan/ton. Key factors to watch include policy signals from important meetings, the sustainability of the increase in steel mill hot - metal production, and the process of port inventory reduction [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Market Conditions - On November 17, 2025, the iron ore i2601 contract showed an upward - trending oscillation. The lowest point was 767.5, the highest was 791, and it closed at 788.5, with a 1.81% increase. The trading volume was 351,300 lots, an increase of 84,900 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest was 481,400 lots, an increase of 1,019 lots from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The 12 iron ore futures contracts showed a backwardation market pattern with near - term contracts stronger than far - term ones. All contracts generally rose, with the increase ranging from 3.5 to 14 points. The total open interest of the variety was 907,493 lots, an increase of 6,657 lots compared to the previous trading day. The i2605 contract had the largest increase in open interest, with an increase of 4,639 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - In the past 5 trading days, the basis of the main iron ore i2601 contract fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 45.9 yuan/ton, a minimum of 39 yuan/ton, and 39 yuan/ton on the reporting day [8]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - In the past 5 trading days, the registered warehouse receipts fluctuated slightly, with a maximum of 900 lots, a minimum of 800 lots, and 900 lots on the reporting day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Demand Side - The steel mill hot - metal production increased slightly to 236,880 tons per day on a month - on - month basis. However, steel mill profits continued to deteriorate, the number of maintenance plans increased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased on a month - on - month basis, and the hot - metal production may decline in a step - by - step manner in the future [9]. 3.3.2 Macroeconomic Environment - Hawkish remarks from Fed officials suppressed the risk appetite for commodities. In China, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment widened, the growth rate of infrastructure investment slowed down, and terminal demand weakened seasonally [10].
锰硅期货日报-20251118
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 08:49
成文日期: 20251118 报告周期:日报 研究品种:锅有 研究分析师:安致远(期货从业资格证号:F03143832;投资咨询证书号:Z0022799) 註期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 11 月 17 日期货品种锰硅 SM2601 合约呈现震荡上行态势。日 盘开于 5752 元/ 吨,最高价 5826 元 / 吨,最低价 5742 元 / 吨,收 盘价为 5792 元/吨,结算价为 5790 元/ 吨,较前一交易日上涨 42 元 /吨。全日成交量为 207209 手,持仓量为 359008 手。 图 1:锰硅 SM2601 分时图 史分时 - 2025/11/17 星期一 PageUp/PageDown日期切换 最新5792 均价5789 5807 5788 5769 5750 5731 5712 5693 5674 09:00 10:15 11:30 15:00 数据来源:同花顺期货通 1.2 品种价格 期货 12 个合约,各合约涨跌不一。品种持仓量 595470 手,较 上一交易日减少 9109 手,其中活跃合约锰硅 SM2601,持仓量减少 2748 手 图 2:锰硅期货日行情表 | 合约 ...
燃料油期货:近远低反,近强远弱
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-18 08:44
本周燃料油合约整体呈现震荡下跌态势,整体跟随国际原油波 动节奏。主要影响因素为成本端下行和基本面支撑两种力量的博弈。 国际原油价格下行对燃料油单边价格形成压制,但国内燃料油市场 供应偏紧、库存偏低的基本面格局仍为市场提供了一定支撑。 1期货市场 1.1 合约行情 本周燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收于 2622 元/吨,较前一交易周 结算价下跌 73 元/吨,跌幅为 2.71%。本周最高价为 2712 元/吨, 最低价为 2579 元/吨,成交量为 2257056 手,持仓量为 217297 手,增加 14374 手。 图 1:FU 燃油主力合约分时图 数据来源:国金期货博易云 研究品种:燃料油 成文日期:20251117 报告周期:周报 研究员:何宁(从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 然料油期货周报 核心观点: 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 1.2 品种价格 燃料油期货合约价格呈现近高远低的反向市场格局,整体 为近强远弱。FU2601 作为主力 ...
锡半年报:“高开高走”的运行特征
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-13 08:56
今日沪锡 合约延续近期反弹趋势,整体呈现"高开高走,高 位震荡"的运行特征。早盘以 元 吨开盘后,受宏观情绪回 暖及有色金属板块普涨带动,随后因下游按需采购的谨慎心态制 约,盘面小幅回落至 元 吨的日内低点;午后多空博弈加 剧,价格在高位区间震荡整理,最终以 元 吨收盘。今日成 交量为 手。 2 | 交割月份 | 前结算 | 今开盘 | 曹煌树 | 图低价 | 收盘价 | 结算参 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交顾 | 持仓手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | જ્રીસ | | | | | | | | 商品名称:锡 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2511 | 285390 | 285980 | 287020 | 285980 | 287020 | 286190 | 1630 | 800 | 54 | 1545.47 | 1184 | 16 | | 2512 | 285790 | 287510 | 2884 ...
国金期货燃料油周报:燃料油基准价为元吨,与本月初元吨相比,下降了-20251111
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 05:35
成文日期:20251110 报告周期:周报 研究品种:燃料油 研究员:何宁(从业资格号:F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 料油期货用服 核心观点: 本周燃料油合约整体呈现震荡下跌态势,整体跟随国际原油波 动节奏,相对低硫燃料油表现偏弱。国际原油方面,虽受俄乌地缘 风险、欧盟对俄制裁传闻等因素短期支撑,但四季度累库预期未改. 价格震荡偏弱,对燃料油市场指引有限,FU2601 或整体维持区间 波动格局。 1期货市场 1.1 合约行情 本周燃料油主力合约 FU2601 收于 2695 元/吨,较前一交易周 结算价下跌 50元/吨,跌幅为 1.82%。本周最高价为 2809 元/吨, 最低价为 2672 元/吨,成交量为 2314688 手,持仓量为 202923 手,增加 10710 手。 图 1:FU 燃油主力合约分时图 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线: 4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 数据来源:国金期货博易云 1.2 品种价格 燃料油期货合约价格呈现近高远低的反向市场格局, 整体表现 FU260 ...
电解铜期货日报:美元指数回落,铜价继续反弹-20251111
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 02:30
成文日期: 20251106 报告周期:日报 :王建超(从业资格号:F3077383; 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0015736) 铜期货日报:美元指数回落,铜价继 1. 期货及现货市场 周三 LME 铜价反弹,当日(20251106 周四)沪铜继续反弹,主 力 2512 合约收盘在 86320 元/吨,较上一交易日收盘价上涨 650 元/ 吨,涨幅 0.76%;美元指数回落,铜价继续反弹。 美国 10 月 ADP 私人就业增长 4.2 万个为四个月最大增幅,同 时修正 9 月的数据由减少 3.2 万修正为减少 2.9 万。美国 ISM 非制 造业 PMI 指数 52.4, 上月为 50.0。数据整体大超预期激励市场情 绪。中美两国都落实了两国元首会晤成果,并宣布降低和暂停相关 关税。 周三美国金融市场修复了早前因美元流动性紧张引发的问题, 美元指数回落,会推动铜价反弹。过去几日,因为美联储在降息问 题上采取模糊策略导致美元指数持续走高,铜价回落。 美国联邦政府停摆进入第 36 天,打破美国历史上最长的停摆记 录。当地时间 11 月 5 日,参议院民主党领袖,致信特朗普,要求举 行两党会议,这标志着在经历了长期僵 ...
棕榈油期货月报-20251110
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 08:55
成文日期: 20251103 报告周期: 月报 研究品种:棕榈油 研究员:漆建华(从业资格号:F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0017731) 棕榈油期货月报 2.1 现货行情和基差数据 2.2 注册仓单 3 影响因素 3.1 供应端 3.2 需求端 目录 核心观点 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格分析 1.2 品种行情分析 1.3 关联行情分析 2 现货市场、 4 行情展望 研究咨询:028 6130 3163 邮箱:institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 核心观点: 当月(202510)内外棕榈油期货市场皆下跌,现货随期货盘面 波动,印度和中国采购较差,且东南亚产地逐步进入减产季,马棕 油供需较弱或将继续打压价格,而印尼生物柴油政策或有支撑,需 关注政策转向。 1期货市场 1.1 合约价格分析 当月棕榈油期货 p2601 合约自国庆节后高开一路走弱,月内经 历日线十连阴,收于 8764 元/吨,月内跌 426 元/吨,跌幅 4.64%, 成交共 885 万手,月末持仓 39.3 万手,较上月末增仓 6.08 万手。 图:棕榈油 ...
棉花期货日报-20251110
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 08:41
花期货日报 1 期货市场 当日(20251106),郑商所棉花期货主力合约 CF2601 早盘以 13600元/吨开盘,盘中窄幅震荡, 日内峰值触及 13630元/吨, 日内 低点至 13555 元/吨,最终收于 13605 元/吨,相较于前一交易日结 第价,涨 70 元/吨,涨幅为 0.52%。全天成交量为 178288 手,持仓 量减持 1553 手,总持仓量至 579138 手。 成文日期:20251106 报告周期: 日报 研究员:漆建华(从业资格号:F03099134;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0017731) 1.1 合约行情 昆主力合约分 1.2 品种价格 棉花期货 6 个合约,各合约均收涨,品种持仓量 944677 手,较 上一交易日增加 1307 手。 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 图 2: 棉花期货日行情表 | 合约代码 | 昨结算 | 今开盘 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 令收留 | 今結算 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交量(手) | 持仓量 | 增减量 | 成交额 ...
玉米期货月报-20251110
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 08:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - In October 2025, the domestic corn market showed a "rising first, then falling" oscillating trend. At the beginning of the month, due to continuous rainy weather, the harvest and listing progress of new - season corn was slower than expected, with tight market supply supporting the price. In the middle and late - month, as the weather cleared, the supply pressure emerged as new grain volume increased and downstream demand was cautious. The overall price center shifted down compared to September [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Price Analysis - The opening price of the corn futures c2601 contract in October was 2,118 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 2,152 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,094 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the closing price was 2,130 yuan/ton, the same as the previous month's closing price. The position was 931,100 lots, and the trading volume was 7,567,700 lots [4]. 1.2 Variety Market Analysis - In the monthly corn futures market, prices rose more than they fell. The total position was 1,772,414 lots, and the trading volume was 13,721,901 lots [8]. 1.3 Associated Market Analysis - In October, the trading volume of corn options was 2,203,616 lots, the total position was 233,188 lots, with a decrease of 130,217 lots. The total number of exercises in the month was 57,481 [10]. 2. Spot Market 2.1 Basis Data - The basis in domestic corn - producing areas first strengthened and then weakened. In the first half - month, continuous rainy weather led to tight spot supply and a strong spot price, while the futures price was relatively weak. In the second half - month, as the weather cleared, new grain volume increased, the spot price fell, and the basis narrowed [11]. 2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of corn futures warehouse receipts first remained stable and then increased, but the overall level was at a historical low. The low level in October supported the futures market, but the end - of - month increase indicated that spot pressure was being transmitted to the futures market [12]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry Information - The National Bureau of Statistics and relevant institutions released the 2025/26 corn production forecast. Concerns about new - grain quality emerged due to rainy weather. Relevant institutions such as Sinograin signaled to enter the market for purchases. Imported grains continued to arrive at ports, affecting domestic prices. Market attention focused on the start - up of drying towers and farmers' selling attitudes, and logistics costs affected the grain circulation pattern [13][14]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The corn futures c2601 contract showed a "bottom - hunting and rebounding" trend. After the National Day, the price fell to a new low due to supply pressure. In the middle and late - month, it bottomed out and rebounded as it fell below the planting cost and with policy support. The MACD indicator showed declining downward momentum and accumulating upward momentum [15]. 4. Market Outlook - Northeast and North China are about to enter the peak period of new - season corn listing. Farmers' selling willingness will be the key to the spot price. Downstream demand is weak, and it's difficult to drive price increases independently. In the short - term, the price of the corn C2601 contract is expected to oscillate and bottom out, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. Future attention should be paid to farmers' selling attitudes, policy - based purchases, and the impact of weather on logistics [18].
玻璃期货日报-20251107
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 14:44
Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Futures Daily Report - Date: November 7, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Analyst: An Zhiyuan [1] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On November 6, 2025, the glass futures market was active but prices were under pressure. The glass market is in a stage of game between "supply contraction expectations and weak demand reality." Short - term sentiment is boosted by cold - repair expectations in the Shahe area, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals face triple pressure of over - capacity, high inventory, and weak terminal demand. Future trends will depend on policy implementation and inventory reduction speed [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On November 6, 2025, the glass FG2601 contract fluctuated throughout the day, closing with a small decline of about 0.45% at 1101 points. The trading volume was 1,741,879 lots, and the open interest was 1,707,110 lots, an increase of 18,149 lots from the previous day [2]. 3.1.2 Variety Prices - The prices of 12 glass futures contracts showed a mixed trend. Except for a small increase in the FG2511 contract, all other contracts had small declines. The total open interest of the variety was 2,149,502 lots, an increase of 36,742 lots from the previous day, with the open interest of the active FG2601 contract increasing by 18,149 lots [5]. 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - For the active glass FG2601 contract, the basis remained relatively stable at 27 yuan/ton on the day [7]. 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - The total number of warehouse receipts today was 219, a decrease of 34 from the previous day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - This week, the average operating rate of the float glass industry decreased by 0.43% to 75.92%, and the average capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.2% to 80.42%. From October 31 to November 6, the national float glass output was 1.1261 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% month - on - month and an increase of 1.87% year - on - year. As of today, the national float glass daily output was 159,100 tons, the lowest in 15 weeks [9][10]. 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The glass FG2601 contract showed a similar trend to soda ash, with a small - scale fluctuation today. It is still in a post - rebound oscillatory technical pattern. Today's K - line closed as a positive line, and the daily K - line was close to the middle track of the BOLL line, with the BOLL line showing a narrowing pattern [11]. 3.4 Market Outlook - On November 6, the main glass futures contract closed at 1,101 yuan/ton, a 0.45% decline from the previous trading day. The market was active but prices were under pressure. The glass market is in a game stage, and future trends depend on policy implementation and inventory reduction [12].