国金期货沪铝日度报告-2025-03-28

Group 1: Report Overview - Reported variety: Shanghai Aluminum [1] - Writing time: March 27, 2025 [1] - Review cycle: Daily [1] - Report title: Shanghai Aluminum Daily Report [2] - Researcher: Cao Baiquan [2] - Consulting license number: Z0019820 [2] Group 2: Market Performance - The price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract showed a volatile upward trend today, with increased trading volume compared to the previous trading day. The al2505 contract had an open interest of 211,849 lots, a trading volume of 178,164 lots, and a gain of 0.56% [3] Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - Uncertainty in US trade policy has intensified. The Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on imported cars on April 2, and plans to further expand the scope of reciprocal tariffs. The market is worried that the escalation of US trade frictions may drag down economic growth and push up inflation [3] - China's Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced the inclusion of the aluminum smelting industry in the national carbon trading market, adding 1,500 key emission units, which may push up the production cost of electrolytic aluminum in the medium to long term [3] Group 4: Spot Market Conditions - In the East China market, the mainstream transaction price was 20,670 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot discount narrowed to -10 yuan/ton. The South China market was weak, with a transaction price of 20,660 yuan/ton in Guangdong, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand [3] Group 5: Technical Analysis - The price of the Shanghai Aluminum 2505 main contract broke through the middle track line of the Bollinger Bands (boll) during the day, and the MACD indicator showed a signal of a pullback and rebound. The short - term aluminum price will continue to maintain a volatile and strong pattern. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff disturbances and data indicating lower - than - expected demand [3]