CMOC(603993) 华安证券·2025-03-28 12:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2130.29 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.37%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 135.32 billion yuan, up 64.03% year-on-year [4][13] - The Congo copper and cobalt production continues to contribute significantly, with the mining and trading sectors driving growth [5][25] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout, with a proposed cash dividend of 2.55 yuan per 10 shares, translating to a cash dividend ratio of approximately 40.32% [6][20] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 582.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.75% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.2%, with a net profit of 52.59 billion yuan, down 9.43% year-on-year but up 84.16% quarter-on-quarter [4][13] - The mining and processing sector generated revenue of 652.60 billion yuan in 2024, up 46.59% year-on-year, while the mineral trading sector achieved revenue of 1883.56 billion yuan, up 12.06% year-on-year [5][22] - The company’s copper and cobalt production reached 65.02 and 11.42 million tons respectively in 2024, with year-on-year increases of 54.97% and 105.61% [5][29] Industry Outlook - The copper market is expected to remain tight due to aging mines and policy changes, with domestic copper prices averaging around 75,000 yuan per ton in 2024, a 9.69% increase from 2023 [7][31] - The cobalt market is also anticipated to tighten following the Congo's export ban, with domestic cobalt prices around 200,000 yuan per ton in 2024, down 26.23% year-on-year, but showing signs of recovery [7][40] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 154.4, 167.3, and 173.5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.85, 10.01, and 9.65 [8][44]