Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, it is not recommended to unilaterally bottom - fish coal and coke without significant improvement in terminal demand. In the long - term, the idea of shorting on rebounds remains unchanged [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On March 28, black - series varieties showed overall weakness. The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all declined, with decreases of 0.28%, 0.12%, 0.19%, 1.06%, and 0.80% respectively [1] Market Analysis - Steel mills' inventory reduction is obvious, and the resumption of production is accelerating. Although the production capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills have increased, and the daily coke output has continued to increase slightly, the inventory of independent coking enterprises has decreased by 3.68% to 129.99 million tons, a two - month low. However, the steel mills' coke inventory has increased slightly by 0.8% to 668.12 million tons, and the year - on - year increase has expanded to 12.27%. With the port inventory reaching a new high, the comprehensive coke inventory has increased by 7.62 million tons to 1060.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of nearly 12% [1] - The profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants has increased slightly by 2 yuan to - 50 yuan/ton. The coking enterprises' demand for phased replenishment of coking coal has increased, and the coking coal inventory has continued to increase by 4.95% or 40.66 million tons to 862.88 million tons, reaching a more than one - month high. The steel mills' coking coal inventory has also increased slightly. However, the coking coal inventory of coal mines and coal washing plants has decreased, and the imported coking coal inventory at ports has decreased by nearly 3% to 674.64 million tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory has rebounded by 21.46 million tons to 2669.3 million tons, the highest in the month, and the year - on - year increase has expanded to 7.11%. The coking coal supply is still loose, and the market shipment pressure is obvious [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the changes in the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the oscillating market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]
黑色产业数据每日监测-2025-03-28
Jin Shi Qi Huo·2025-03-28 12:44