CMES(601872) 方正证券·2025-03-28 13:48Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Strong Buy" [1][8][27] Core Views - The report expresses optimism about the mid-term outlook for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) due to strong supply constraints and a return of demand in the regular market [5][8] - The company has shown resilience with a significant increase in net profit in Q4, indicating strong operational performance [3][4][7] Financial Performance - For the year 2024, the company reported total revenue of 25.8 billion RMB, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, while Q4 revenue was 6.5 billion RMB, down 5.2% year-on-year [3] - The net profit for the year was 5.1 billion RMB, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year, with Q4 net profit reaching 1.74 billion RMB, up 61.1% year-on-year and 99.3% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.08 billion RMB, representing a payout ratio of 40.7% [3] Segment Performance - In the oil transportation segment, Q4 revenue was 2.22 billion RMB, down 8.5% year-on-year, with net profit at 570 million RMB, down 22% year-on-year but up 49% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The dry bulk shipping segment saw Q4 revenue of 1.87 billion RMB, down 4.5% year-on-year, with net profit at 240 million RMB, down 27% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The container shipping segment experienced a significant profit increase in Q4, with revenue of 1.38 billion RMB, down 7% year-on-year, but net profit surged to 840 million RMB, up 257% year-on-year and 263% quarter-on-quarter [7] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is set at 6.48 billion, 7.66 billion, and 8.18 billion RMB respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 [8][9] - The report highlights the company's valuation attractiveness, suggesting a dividend yield of approximately 5% based on a 40% payout ratio [8]