沥青周报：跟随成本端走高-2025-03-28

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last Week's Main Viewpoint: Asphalt has been weak recently, affected by the decline in the cost - end crude oil and a slowdown in its own fundamentals. Some southern refineries offered preferential policies to stimulate shipments, and the overall market sentiment was average. It was expected to remain weakly stable in the short term, and caution was advised regarding further declines in the cost - end [8]. - This Week's Trend Analysis: This week, the tightening of crude oil supply at the cost - end stimulated its price to rise, and asphalt followed the upward trend of crude oil [8]. - This Week's Industry Data: This week, the refinery operating rate remained at a low level, while the shipment volume continued to increase. The refinery inventory decreased for the second consecutive week, and the social inventory continued to accumulate, showing an overall marginal improvement [8]. - This Week's Main Viewpoint: Affected by the continuous low refinery operating rate and the steady increase in shipment volume, the asphalt refinery inventory decreased, and the fundamentals improved slightly. However, the actual rigid demand remained weak. Therefore, asphalt only fluctuated with the crude oil price and had no independent additional trend. It is expected to follow the stable rebound trend of crude oil in the short term, and caution is advised regarding cost - end fluctuations [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint - Analyzed the reasons for the weak performance of asphalt last week, including the decline in crude oil prices and the slowdown of its own fundamentals. This week, due to the tightening of crude oil supply, asphalt followed the upward trend of crude oil. The refinery operating rate was low, shipments increased, refinery inventory decreased, and social inventory increased. The fundamentals improved slightly, but rigid demand was still weak [8]. 3.2 Data Overview - 2.1 Asphalt Futures Trends, Monthly Spreads, and Basis: Provided historical data on asphalt futures price trends, monthly spreads (such as BU2506 - BU2509), and basis in East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025 [10][11]. - 2.2 Asphalt Supply: Presented data on asphalt plant operating rates, weekly production, refinery asphalt profits, and the profit difference between asphalt and fuel oil multiplied by the asphalt operating rate from 2021 - 2025 [13][14]. - 2.3 Asphalt Demand: Showed data on asphalt shipment volume, apparent consumption, paver sales, and paver sales multiplied by asphalt apparent consumption from 2020 - 2025 [16][17]. - 2.4 Asphalt Imports and Exports: Displayed data on asphalt imports, exports, and import windows in East China and South China from 2021 - 2025 [19][20]. - 2.5 Asphalt Inventory: Included data on refinery inventory, social inventory, futures inventory, and monthly futures delivery volume from 2021 - 2025 [22][23]. - 2.6 Shandong Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Provided data on the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in Shandong from 2020 - 2025 [25][26]. - 2.7 East China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Showed data on the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in East China from 2020 - 2025 [28][29]. - 2.8 South China Asphalt Supply, Demand, and Inventory: Presented data on the operating rate, shipment volume, refinery inventory, and social inventory of asphalt in South China from 2020 - 2025 [31][32]. - 2.9 Refinery Maintenance Schedule: Listed the production enterprises, maintenance devices, production capacities, maintenance start times, and undetermined end times of refineries. The total production capacity under maintenance was 20.41 million tons/year, and the maintenance loss was 818,500 tons [34].