Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to experience significant profit elasticity in 2025 despite a substantial decline in profits in 2024 due to one-time expenses and stock incentive costs [6] - The company has a target price based on its current valuation and market conditions, with a projected PE ratio of 8/7/6X for 2025-2027 [6] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue/net profit/operating cash flow of 6.589 billion/0.474 billion/0.996 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 4.68%/43.06%/36.51% [2] - The net profit decline was primarily due to negative operating leverage and increased expense ratios, including stock incentive expenses of 0.099 billion and an increase of 0.068 billion [2] - The company declared a final dividend of 0.38 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 55.6% and a dividend yield of 4.97% [2] Brand Performance - The three main brands Koradior, NAERSI, and NEXY.CO experienced revenue growth rates of -9.68%, -1.87%, and 0.79%, respectively, accounting for 69.9% of total revenue [3] - The growth brands La Koradior, ELSEWHERE, CADIDL, and NAERSILING had mixed performance, with La Koradior showing a growth rate of 10.23% [3] - The company saw a total store count decrease of 125 stores in 2024, a decline of 6.4% year-on-year [3] Profitability Metrics - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 76.4%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The net profit margin for 2024 was 7.1%, a decrease of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased expense ratios and decreased other income [4] - The company’s selling, general, and administrative expenses as a percentage of revenue increased, with selling expenses at 59.0%, management expenses at 10.3%, and financial expenses at 0.8% [4] Inventory and Receivables - The company's inventory increased to 1.572 billion, a year-on-year growth of 36%, with inventory to revenue ratio at 24% [5] - Accounts receivable decreased slightly by 0.3% year-on-year to 0.715 billion, while accounts payable increased significantly by 104.4% to 0.306 billion [5] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted down to 6.980 billion and 7.941 billion, respectively, while the 2027 forecast has been increased to 8.891 billion [6] - The projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 has been revised to 0.628 billion and 0.749 billion, with an increase for 2027 to 0.869 billion [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 0.89 and 1.06, with a new estimate for 2027 at 1.23 [6]
赢家时尚（03709）：存在一次性费用影响，期待25年利润弹性