策略日报：调整如期而至-2025-03-28

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market shows a decline in long-term rates and fluctuations in short-term rates, with a tightening liquidity environment leading to a correction of previously overestimated rate cut expectations, stabilizing around the six-month line, indicating potential for allocation [14][18] - The stock market is experiencing a necessary adjustment, particularly in small-cap technology stocks, while low-position dividend, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to yield excess returns [2][18] - The foreign exchange market indicates a strong support level for the CNY/USD around 7.1, with expectations of continued depreciation pressure on the RMB due to trade war concerns, projecting a year-end offshore RMB rate of 7.5-7.6 [3][28] Group 2: Investment Strategy - In the bond market, it is recommended to manage duration while considering allocation [6] - For the A-share market, caution is advised regarding the feedback risk from small-cap technology stocks, with a focus on low-position dividend, consumer, and healthcare sectors [6][18] - In the U.S. stock market, a short-term rebound is anticipated, but mid-term adjustments are expected to continue, suggesting investors wait for long-term buying opportunities [7][26] Group 3: Sector Performance - The precious metals sector has outperformed, rising over 3%, while previously strong sectors like agricultural chemicals and rubber products have declined [20] - The market is witnessing a clear trend of profit-taking, with low-position dividend, healthcare, and consumer sectors showing favorable win rates and odds [20][21] - The commodity market indicates a slight decline in the Wenhua Commodity Index, with a recommendation for investors to buy on dips and set stop-losses at new lows [33]