Group 1 - In the first quarter, domestic funding tightened and risk appetite improved, leading to a bear flattening of the yield curve. The equity market's risk appetite was significantly boosted by the DEEPSEEK technology breakthrough, which suppressed bond prices. Due to unexpected bond supply and restrained central bank liquidity injections, the funding environment remained tight, resulting in a rapid adjustment in the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield gradually peaking at 1.9% [2][11][17] - The new economy is breaking through while the old economy is showing signs of recovery. In 2025, a moderate fiscal stimulus is expected, lower than in 2015, 2020, and 2022, requiring substantial monetary policy support to sustain the recovery trend. The leading indicator M1 may see a two-year compound growth rate reaching nominal GDP growth, indicating moderate recovery momentum. The GDP growth rate for the first quarter is expected to be between 5.1% and 5.3%, supported by fiscal stimulus and credit growth [2][41][76] - The bond market is expected to see a resonance of risk appetite switching and a warming funding environment in the second quarter. The central bank's focus this year is on technology and structural policies, while also considering broad asset prices in macro-prudential assessments. The monetary policy may adopt less transparent tools, with actual strength following the realities of the economy [2][3][82] Group 2 - In 2025, the broad fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase by nearly 2% compared to 2024, with the budget deficit rate rising from 3% to 4%. The total government bond supply is projected to reach 13.86 trillion yuan, with a significant increase in special bonds and long-term special bonds [42][43][45] - The fiscal impulse for 2025 is estimated at 2.4%, slightly lower than in 2022. The actual pulse magnitude, excluding replacement bonds, is 2.1%, which is less than the impulses seen in 2015, 2020, and 2022 [45][46][52] - The DEEPSEEK technology breakthrough is expected to drive an incremental investment of approximately 3,000 to 6,000 billion yuan in 2025, with Alibaba planning to invest over 380 billion yuan in cloud and AI infrastructure over the next three years [70][73] Group 3 - The real estate sector is still in the early stages of recovery, with new home sales slowing down and prices continuing to decline. The supply-demand imbalance persists, with expectations for real estate investment to contract in 2025, likely at a lower scale than in 2024 [60][68][74] - The first quarter's supply-demand indicators are expected to show growth rates lower than those of the same period in 2024, indicating a continuation of the oversupply situation. The core economic indicators for 2025 are projected to be weaker than those of 2024 [74][76] - The technology sector is anticipated to lead the market, with expectations for a sustained bull market in technology stocks following the DEEPSEEK breakthrough. However, the market may face a risk-off phase during earnings reporting periods or geopolitical events [81][82]
平安固收：2025年2季度固收策略：机会大于风险
Ping An Securities·2025-03-28 15:24