避险需求再次发酵，美国衰退担忧仍存？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ongoing Trump trade war, concerns about a US recession, and risk aversion have jointly pushed up the prices of precious metals. It is expected that precious metals will continue to be volatile and bullish in the short term, experience high-level fluctuations in the medium term, and rise in a stepwise manner in the long term [7]. - The short - term strategy is to be volatile and bullish, the medium - term strategy is to be weakly volatile, and the long - term strategy is to rise in a stepwise manner. The support and resistance levels for Shanghai Gold futures are 690 - 695 and 725 - 730 respectively, and for Shanghai Silver futures are 8000 - 8030 and 8500 - 8530 respectively [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Safe - Haven Attribute - Recent trade wars and geopolitical events have reignited, increasing risk - aversion demand. Trump's 25% tariff on imported cars and the expansion of the trade war, along with geopolitical risks such as the tense Middle - East situation and the recurring Russia - Ukraine conflict, have contributed to this [2]. - The US debt has exceeded $36 trillion, and the deteriorating fiscal situation has intensified market doubts about the US dollar's credit system [2]. 2. Monetary Attribute - The US economy has shown more signs of weakness, with significant declines in retail sales and consumer confidence, a loosening employment market, and persistent overall inflation data, increasing the risk of recession [3]. - The Fed's March interest - rate decision indicates that the pace of balance - sheet reduction will slow down, increasing the risk of stagflation in the US. This has strengthened the market's bet on a decline in real interest rates and reduced the cost of holding gold. The market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged until June 2025, with the expected total rate - cut space in 2025 rising to 75 basis points, one more rate cut than the Fed's dot - plot suggests [3]. 3. Commodity Attribute - Although gold jewelry consumption is constrained by high prices, the investment demand for gold bars has offset some of the impact. Central banks in emerging markets, including the People's Bank of China, are implementing a "de - dollarization" strategy, keeping central - bank gold - buying demand at a high level [4]. - The CRB commodity index is under pressure and declining, and the depreciation of the RMB is beneficial to domestic prices [4]. 4. Capital Flow - Recently, the net long positions of gold and silver in the CFTC have increased at high levels, and the net long positions of Shanghai gold and silver futures in China have continued to increase. The world's largest gold and silver ETFs have ended their long - term downward trends and have rapidly increased their positions [5]. 5. Future Investment Logic Evolution - In the short term, the inflation - upward risk brought by the trade war remains to be released, and the Fed may maintain a cautious attitude or even postpone rate cuts. The realization of the trade - war phase, the resumption of Russia - Ukraine negotiations, or a cease - fire in the Middle East may weaken short - term risk - aversion demand, increasing the short - term correction pressure on gold prices after a sharp rise. In the long term, the reconstruction of the global economic and political system will drive the reconstruction of the monetary system, and geopolitical risks and the expectation of the Fed's policy shift to easing will still provide support [7]. 6. 2024 - 2025 Fed Monetary Policy Path Review - In March 2024, the Fed raised economic and inflation expectations, maintained the guidance of rate cuts within the year, and hinted at a slowdown in balance - sheet reduction [9]. - In May 2024, the Fed maintained interest rates, announced a slowdown in balance - sheet reduction from June 1, and hinted that the next rate action was unlikely to be a rate hike [9]. - In June 2024, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the updated dot - plot significantly reduced the expected number of rate cuts for the year [9]. - In July 2024, the Fed continued to keep interest rates unchanged, confirmed progress in inflation reduction, and suggested that a rate cut might be an option in September [10]. - In September 2024, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, with a larger - than - usual initial rate - cut amplitude, and announced further rate - cut plans [10]. - In November 2024, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, expressed concerns about inflation pressure, and indicated that future rate cuts might slow down [10]. - In December 2024, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the dot - plot showed that the expected number of rate cuts in 2025 had decreased [10]. - In January 2025, the Fed paused rate cuts, stating that inflation was still somewhat high and the labor market had cooled but remained robust [10]. - In March 2025, the Fed maintained interest rates, announced a slowdown in balance - sheet reduction from April 1, and expected two rate cuts in 2025, but the number of those expecting no rate cuts in the dot - plot increased [10].