中国宏观经济一季度报告

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the first two months of this year, the Chinese economy grew steadily, with industrial production and fixed - asset investment growth better than market expectations, social retail sales growing steadily, and export growth slowing slightly. The urban survey unemployment rate in February was slightly higher than the same period last year. With the continuous release of the effects of the package of incremental policies in the fourth quarter of last year and the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and other macro - policies this year, the Chinese economy in the first quarter is expected to be stable and improving, with the GDP year - on - year growth rate expected to exceed 5%. However, the economy still faces difficulties and challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and many risk hidden dangers, and external demand changes have great uncertainties in the future, requiring continuous efforts in domestic demand [68]. Summary by Relevant Content Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to February, the national fixed - asset investment was 5261.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, better than the market expectation of 3.8%. In 2024, it increased by 3.2% year - on - year. Generalized infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 9.95% year - on - year, better than the market expectation of 7.1%. Manufacturing investment increased by 9.0% year - on - year, slightly lower than the market expectation of 9.2%. Real estate development investment decreased by 9.8% year - on - year, slightly worse than the market expectation [6]. Real Estate Market - From January to February, the sales area of new commercial housing was 107.46 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%, and the sales volume was 1025.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. In February, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, ending the upward trend since October 2024. The second - hand housing prices in second - and third - tier cities also declined. The national second - hand housing price is still in the process of bottom - seeking, but the decline rate has slowed down compared with the fourth quarter of last year. The average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased year - on - year in the first quarter [10][13][20]. Industrial Production - From January to February, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% year - on - year, better than the market expectation of 5.1%. Among them, the mining industry increased by 4.3%, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.9%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 1.1% [23]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to February, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the profit decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, with the decline rate narrowing compared with the whole year of 2024. The manufacturing industry improved significantly, with a year - on - year profit increase of 4.8%, while the mining industry's profit decreased by 25.2%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water increased by 13.5% [27]. Social Consumption - From January to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 8373.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%, slightly lower than the market expectation of 4.5%. The sales of communication equipment and other consumer goods increased significantly year - on - year, while the sales of automobiles decreased [30][33]. Foreign Trade - In the first two months, China's total import and export value was 909.37 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Exports were 539.94 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%, and imports were 369.43 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. Exports to ASEAN, the United States, and other regions showed different growth trends [36]. Social Financing - In the first two months of 2025, the increment of social financing scale was 9.29 trillion yuan, 1.32 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The core reason was the increase in net financing of government bonds [42]. RMB Loans - In the first two months, new RMB loans were 6.14 trillion yuan, 230 billion yuan less than the same period last year. The structure of enterprise loans was not good, with a significant year - on - year decrease in medium - and long - term loans [45]. Money Supply - At the end of February, the balance of broad - money (M2) increased by 7.0% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. The balance of narrow - money (M1) increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the overall growth rate of M1 in the first two months was still low [48]. Price Index - The average CPI from January to February decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. In February, the CPI decreased by 0.7% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month. The PPI in February decreased by 2.2% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month [51][61]. Unemployment Rate - In February, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.4%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month and 0.1 percentage points higher than the same period last year [67].