CITIC Metal (SH:601061) Minsheng Securities·2025-03-29 05:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Cautious Recommendation" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 130.19 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.15%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.238 billion yuan, up 8.79% year-on-year [1][2]. - Investment income significantly increased, while black metal trading negatively impacted overall performance [2]. - Future growth is expected to be driven by ongoing investment projects and a dual focus on trade and investment [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 130.19 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.238 billion yuan and a decrease in non-recurring net profit to 1.820 billion yuan, down 7.42% year-on-year [1]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 35.133 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.26% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.04% [1]. Investment Income - The company realized investment income of 2.424 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 1.799 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to profits from derivative positions and the release of investment value from the reduction of equity in Aifenhao [2]. - Aifenhao Mining contributed 324 million yuan to investment income, while the Peru Bombaas Copper Mine contributed 564 million yuan [2]. Trade Performance - The revenue from non-ferrous metals reached 95.631 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.84%, while the gross margin for non-ferrous and black metal trading was 1.31%, down 1.01 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The gross profit from black metal trading was negative at -333 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 19.91 million yuan [2]. Future Outlook - Key projects include the ramp-up of Aifenhao's KK Copper Mine, which is expected to produce 437,000 tons of copper in 2024, and the Kipushi Zinc-Copper Mine, which is now in commercial production [3]. - The Bombaas Copper Mine is projected to increase its copper production to 323,000 tons in 2024, with a guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 tons for 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 2.384 billion yuan, 2.574 billion yuan, and 2.701 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16x, 15x, and 14x [5][9].