大宗及贵金属周报：“利空”主要体现在耗煤、粗钢产量-2025-03-30

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From March 23 to March 29, in the fixed - income fundamental monitoring system of Guojin Securities, among the 48 updated high - frequency indicators, there were 28 "bullish" and 20 "bearish" indicators for the bond market. "Bullish" factors were mainly in areas such as real estate volume, consumption, travel, exports, and some industrial product prices, while "bearish" factors were in coal consumption, steel production, industry operating rates, real estate prices, industrial inventories, and most agricultural product prices [2]. - The signals released by the ten interest - rate synchronous indicators were mainly "bearish", accounting for 7/10. Compared with last week, the year - on - year output of key enterprises' crude steel sent a "bearish" signal, while bill financing and the US dollar index sent "bullish" signals [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Thermometer - Among the 48 updated high - frequency indicators, 28 were "bullish" and 20 were "bearish". "Bullish" aspects included real estate volume, consumption, travel, exports, and some industrial product prices; "bearish" aspects included coal consumption, steel production, industry operating rates, real estate prices, industrial inventories, and most agricultural product prices [2]. 2. Interest - Rate Synchronous Indicators - The signals from the ten interest - rate synchronous indicators were mainly "bearish" (7/10). Changes from last week included the year - on - year output of key enterprises' crude steel being "bearish", and bill financing and the US dollar index being "bullish" [3]. - Specific indicators: - "Bearish" indicators: Excavator sales year - on - year (6MMA) was 19.0% (previous 12.1%); cement price year - on - year was 17.5% (previous 11.7%); key enterprises' crude steel output year - on - year (6MMA) was 3.9% (previous 2.2%); land transfer income year - on - year was - 15.7% (previous - 16.0%); PMI year - on - year was - 1.7% (previous - 2.8%); credit cycle was 0.9% (previous 3.5%); copper - gold ratio was 17.0 (previous 16.7) [3]. - "Bullish" indicators: Iron ore port inventory was 1.39 billion tons (previous 1.46 billion tons); bill financing was 14.4 trillion yuan (previous 14.2 trillion yuan); US dollar index was 104.4 (previous 103.6) [3].