有色及贵金属周报：关税在即，预期转换临近-2025-03-30

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The impending "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S. are expected to increase inflation concerns, leading to potential fluctuations in precious metal prices. Industrial metal demand may also face challenges, but domestic policies aimed at strengthening internal demand are anticipated to mitigate some impacts. Additionally, geopolitical risks may disrupt supply, providing support for industrial metal prices [3][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - The U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" are set to launch, raising inflation concerns and increasing macroeconomic volatility, which may lead to fluctuations in precious metal prices. Industrial metals could experience demand shocks due to overseas tariffs, but there is potential for demand recovery as the U.S. administration shows openness to tariff agreements. Domestic policies focusing on internal demand are expected to offset some negative impacts, while geopolitical tensions may further disrupt supply, supporting industrial metal prices [3][7]. 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a decline of 2.56% this week, ranking 14th among all industries. The best-performing stock was Zhongzhou Special Materials, which increased by 14.66%, while Yongmaotai experienced the largest drop at -35.37% [12][14]. 3. Metal Prices and Inventory - Industrial Metals: - Copper prices decreased by 0.20% to 80,450 CNY/ton, while aluminum fell by 0.58% to 20,580 CNY/ton. The overall supply remains tight, with geopolitical risks affecting resource availability [21][22]. - Precious Metals: - Gold prices rose, with SHFE gold increasing by 1.99% to 722.80 CNY/gram and COMEX gold up by 3.20% to 3,118.00 USD/ounce. Silver also saw gains, with SHFE silver rising by 3.03% to 8,512.00 CNY/kg [24][25]. 4. Macro Data Tracking - U.S. inflation indicators show a core PCE increase of 2.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations. The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan was reported at 57, below expectations [27][28]. 5. Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with beneficiaries including Western Mining, China Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yun Aluminum, Shandong Gold, and Shanjin International [3][9].