农业银行：业绩增速提升，县域持续深耕-20250330

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company in the A/H shares category, with a target price of RMB 6.08 and HKD 5.90 [8]. Core Views - The company's net profit, revenue, and pre-provision operating profit (PPOP) for 2024 are expected to grow by 4.7%, 2.3%, and 1.4% year-on-year, with growth rates improving compared to the first nine months of the year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 0.23 per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 30.0% and a yield of 4.53% for A shares and 5.32% for H shares [1]. - The company continues to deepen its focus on county-level markets, with a loan balance of RMB 9.85 trillion in these areas, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, total assets, total loans, and total deposits are projected to increase by 8.4%, 10.2%, and 4.9% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The net interest margin for 2024 is expected to be 1.42%, down 3 basis points from the previous quarter and 18 basis points from 2023 [3]. - The company’s net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 282.08 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.72% [27]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio at the end of 2024 is expected to decrease to 1.30%, with a coverage ratio of 300% [4]. - The NPL ratio for corporate loans improved, while retail loans showed some volatility, with mortgage and consumer loan NPL ratios increasing to 0.73% and 1.55%, respectively [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report predicts a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.76 for A shares and 0.68 for H shares in 2025, reflecting a premium due to the company's strong county-level financial characteristics [5]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at RMB 0.83, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.17 [27].