小步试探，谨慎追涨

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The bond market in March was volatile with interest rates rising first and then falling, and the focus of the game was on the central bank's attitude. In April, the 10-year bond interest rate may mainly operate in the range of 1.80%-1.90%, with a greater possibility of breaking downward but limited in amplitude. It is recommended to control the liquidity risk of the portfolio and avoid excessive chasing up. When the interest rate approaches 1.75% downward, gradually take profits [4][5]. - In March, credit bonds performed better than interest rate bonds, with yields rising first and then falling. In the last two weeks, credit bonds strongly recovered, with short-term bonds showing obvious upward trends. The subsequent credit spreads still have some room to narrow, and it is advisable to seize the phased market and observe the repair rhythm of credit bonds [6][18]. - The adjustment range of the convertible bond market this time may not be too deep, and it is expected to be smaller than the adjustment in December last year. Investors should look for opportunities during the adjustment and give priority to strategies such as high-price and high-volatility strategies to prepare for the convertible bond bull market throughout the year [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Review and Outlook - March Bond Market Review: The bond market was highly volatile, with interest rates rising first and then falling. The focus of the game was on the central bank's attitude. Multiple factors such as the central bank's statements, operations, and various policies affected the market trend [12]. - April Bond Market Outlook: For interest rate bonds, the current long - short divergence in the bond market is intense. The 10-year bond interest rate may mainly operate in the range of 1.80% - 1.90%, with a greater possibility of breaking downward but limited in amplitude. For credit bonds, they performed better than interest rate bonds in March, and the subsequent credit spreads still have room to narrow. For convertible bonds, the adjustment is expected to be limited, and opportunities should be sought during the adjustment [5][16][18]. 2. Fundamentals and Policies - Fundamentals: Since March, medium - term and high - frequency data have shown that the monthly average of the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities has increased compared with the previous month but decreased slightly year - on - year; the export CCFI and SCFI composite indices have continued to decline significantly year - on - year and month - on - month; steel production has increased year - on - year, and the daily coal consumption of eight coastal provinces has decreased year - on - year. Industry operating rates are differentiated, and automobile sales have increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. In addition, high - frequency infrastructure data has improved month - on - month [23]. - Policies: The central bank has repeatedly stated that it will "select the right time to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates" and guided the market to correctly understand its meaning through various statements. The central bank adjusted the winning bid method of MLF, and the policy attribute of MLF interest rate has withdrawn [28]. 3. Interest Rate Bonds - Money Market: In March, the central bank's open - market operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 5259 billion yuan. The money market interest rate decreased, while the bill interest rate increased. Compared with February, the monthly average of R001 and R007 decreased by 16BP and 14BP respectively, and the monthly average of DR001 and DR007 decreased by 10BP and 15BP respectively. The monthly average of the six - month and 3 - month national stock bill transfer discount prices increased by 9BP and 16BP respectively compared with February [32]. - Primary Issuance: In March, the net supply of interest rate bonds decreased, and certificates of deposit increased in both volume and price. The net financing of interest rate bonds was 1553.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 409.1 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The issuance of certificates of deposit was 4043.6 billion yuan, an increase of 1283 billion yuan compared with the previous month [38][45]. - Secondary Market in March: The bond market was highly volatile, and the yield curve continued to shift upward. Compared with February 28, on March 28, the yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 7BP, 10BP, and 12BP respectively; the yields of 1 - year, 10 - year, and 20 - year CDB bonds changed by - 3BP, + 12BP, and + 11BP respectively [44][46]. 4. Credit Bonds - Primary Issuance: In March, the net financing of major credit bond varieties turned into net repayment. The total issuance was 1145.86 billion yuan, with a maturity of 1221.18 billion yuan, resulting in a net repayment of 75.31 billion yuan. The number of issuances increased compared with the previous month. AAA - rated issuers accounted for the largest proportion, and construction industry issuers accounted for the largest proportion in terms of industry [51]. - Secondary Trading: In March, the trading volume of major credit bond varieties increased, with yields decreasing and spreads differentiating. The total trading volume was 3564.9 billion yuan, an increase of 1212.542 billion yuan compared with February. The yields of medium - term notes at all levels decreased [54]. - Credit Rating Adjustment and Default Tracking: In March, there were 2 issuers with rating upgrades and 1 issuer with a rating downgrade; 3 new bonds were extended, and there were no new default entities [8]. 5. Convertible Bonds - The adjustment of the convertible bond market is expected to be limited. The current convertible bond market is in a bull market, and the adjustment may bring opportunities. The improvement of fundamentals since the beginning of the year continues, and investors should look for opportunities during the adjustment and give priority to high - price and high - volatility strategies [7].