白糖月报：基本面支撑，郑糖易涨难跌-2025-03-30

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International market: Brazilian dry weather is a concern, and there may be significant year - on - year data changes at the beginning of the new crushing season. Indian sugar production estimates vary greatly around 26 million tons, causing short - term market fluctuations. Overall supply depends on Brazil. If there are no unexpected situations in Brazil, international sugar prices will likely remain in the range of 17 - 22 cents per pound in the second quarter [2][29]. - Domestic market: As Guangxi finishes the crushing season, the domestic sugar market is entering the de - stocking phase. Sales progress has improved compared to previous years, and sugar mills face limited pressure. Imports have significantly decreased, and the control of syrups and pre - mixed powders has tightened. With the rise in temperature and the upcoming May Day holiday, sugar consumption will be boosted, so domestic sugar prices are likely to rise rather than fall, with an operating range of 5,800 - 6,400 yuan per ton [2][29][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Domestic: In the first quarter, Zhengzhou sugar prices first declined and then rebounded. In January, due to supply pressure and weak consumption, sugar prices dropped to a low of 5,725 yuan per ton on January 22. Subsequently, driven by the international market and lower - than - expected production in Guangxi, prices rebounded. After a small adjustment, they reached a high of 6,166 yuan per ton on March 21 [5]. - International: International sugar prices fluctuated in the first quarter, ranging from 16.6 to 20.1 cents per pound. They hit a low of 16.61 cents per pound on January 21, then rebounded to 19.98 cents per pound on February 25. After a sharp drop due to large - scale contract deliveries in March, prices recovered to a high of 20.09 cents per pound [5]. 3.2 International Market Analysis - Brazil: The 2024/25 crushing season in Brazil has basically ended. As of March 1, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region was 39.822 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.58%. The current focus is on the weather in the central - southern region. Drought in March has raised concerns about sugarcane yield. Forecasts for the 2025/26 crushing season's sugarcane crushing volume vary widely, from 59 million tons to 63 million tons [8][11]. - India: There are significant differences in the estimated sugar production for the 2024/25 crushing season. The NFCSF revised the estimate to 25.9 million tons, while the ISMA estimated 26.4 million tons after adjusting for ethanol production. The production in major sugar - producing states has declined. Whether India can export or even import sugar depends on whether the production reaches 26 million tons, which will affect short - term market fluctuations [14][15][16]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis - Production: The estimated domestic sugar production for the 2024/25 crushing season has been revised down by 30 - 400,000 tons compared to the beginning of the season, mainly due to lower - than - expected production in Guangxi. As Guangxi is almost finished with the crushing season, the domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking phase in April [20]. - Sales: As of the end of February 2025, sugar production was 9.7161 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.25%. Cumulative sugar sales were 4.7516 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.75%. The cumulative sales rate was 48.9%, 1.36 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The expected sugar sales volume in March is between 900,000 and 1 million tons, which supports spot sugar prices [22]. - Imports: In February 2025, China imported 20,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 470,000 tons. From January to February, cumulative sugar imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 million tons. The import of syrups and pre - mixed powders also decreased. With the suspension of imports from Thailand and Vietnam, future imports are expected to decline significantly [26][27]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - Conclusion: International sugar prices will likely remain volatile in the short term, and domestic sugar prices are likely to rise. - Operational Suggestions: Adopt a bullish approach for Zhengzhou sugar futures [29][30][31].