Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 4.79 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 181.3 billion for 2024, a decrease of 13.8% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.39 billion, down 38.2% year-on-year. The decline in revenue is primarily due to the imbalance in supply and demand in the cement sector, although the new materials and engineering services segments continue to show growth momentum [1]. - The cement segment faced pressure with a total sales volume of 245 million tons in 2024, down 20.7% year-on-year, and an average price of RMB 250.6 per ton, down 7.7% year-on-year. However, since May 2024, there has been a positive trend in price recovery, with an estimated gross profit per ton of RMB 46, reflecting an increase of 8.0% quarter-on-quarter and 48.8% year-on-year [2]. - The new materials segment saw a mixed performance with sales increases in fiberglass, wind turbine blades, and lithium battery separators, while prices decreased significantly. The overall gross margin for this segment was 21.7%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year. Price recovery is expected to continue into 2025, improving profitability [3]. - The engineering segment showed stable performance with revenue of RMB 46.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The international equipment orders have increased, helping to mitigate domestic demand pressures [4]. - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been adjusted upwards, with EPS estimates raised to RMB 0.55 for 2025 and RMB 0.68 for 2026. The target price has been increased by 18% to HKD 4.79, reflecting a 10% discount to the historical average P/E ratio [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 181.3 billion, down 13.8% from 2023, and a net profit of RMB 2.39 billion, down 38.2% year-on-year. The projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 187.85 billion, reflecting a growth of 3.6% [7]. - The EPS for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.28, with a significant increase expected in 2025 to RMB 0.55 [7]. Market Trends - The cement industry is expected to maintain a positive price trend due to ongoing supply-side policies and production adjustments. The average national cement price is projected to decrease by 4.2% quarter-on-quarter but increase by 10.1% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [2]. - The new materials segment is anticipated to improve profitability as price recovery deepens, particularly in fiberglass and gypsum board products [3]. Engineering Services - The engineering and technical services segment reported stable growth, with new orders totaling RMB 63.4 billion, a 3% increase year-on-year. The international market is becoming increasingly important, with overseas orders accounting for 44% of total equipment orders [4].
中国建材：多板块复价进行时，轻舟已过万重山-20250330