海外经济政策跟踪：美国核心通胀抬升

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) year-on-year growth rate decreased to 5.3% in February, down 0.1 percentage points from January[12] - The core PCE price index year-on-year growth rate increased to 2.8% in February, up 0.1 percentage points from January[12] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in March, below the market expectation of 51.8[21] Group 2: Market Trends - Major stock markets experienced declines, with the Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 both down 1.5% and the Hang Seng Index down 1.1%[3] - Commodity prices mostly rose, with London gold up 2.0% and IPE Brent crude futures up 1.8%[3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.27%[3] Group 3: Inflation Expectations - As of March 28, the 5-year inflation expectation in the US rose to 2.58%, an increase of 7 basis points from the previous week[23] - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with the second cut now expected in July[23] Group 4: Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates for a longer period due to rising inflation expectations[34] - The European Central Bank's rate cut pace remains uncertain, with officials indicating caution regarding future decisions[35]