银行2024年度业绩跟踪：业绩边际改善，分红局部提升

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [7][20]. Core Insights - The performance of 35 A-share listed banks has shown marginal improvement in 2024, with a notable increase in cash dividends for some banks [2][6]. - Revenue growth for listed banks in 2024 has rebounded compared to the first three quarters, driven by a favorable interest rate environment and reduced pressure on net interest income and fee income [3][4]. - The average annual revenue growth rates for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 0.2%, -0.9%, 5.3%, and 5.8% respectively [4]. - The net profit growth for these banks also improved, with the average growth rates being 1.6%, 2.3%, 9.0%, and 8.4% respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a recovery in revenue growth for listed banks, with the top five banks in terms of revenue growth being Zhengzhou Bank (+7.9pct), Xiamen Bank (+5.9pct), Hangzhou Bank (+5.7pct), Huaxia Bank (+4.2pct), and Shanghai Bank (+4.1pct) [3]. Profit Performance - The net profit growth for the top five banks was led by Pudong Development Bank (+23.3pct), Qingdao Bank (+20.2pct), Hangzhou Bank (+18.1pct), Qilu Bank (+17.8pct), and Changshu Bank (+16.2pct) [4]. Asset Quality - The asset quality of listed banks has shown improvement, with 24 out of 35 banks reporting a decrease in non-performing loan ratios compared to the end of 2023 [5]. - The average non-performing loan ratios for state-owned banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 1.2%, 1.3%, 1.0%, and 0.9% respectively [5]. Dividend Policy - The cash dividend payout ratio for state-owned banks remained above 30%, while most joint-stock banks also maintained a payout ratio above 30% [6]. - The top five banks with increased dividend payout ratios were Zhengzhou Bank (+9.69pct), CITIC Bank (+2.49pct), Zhangjiagang Bank (+1.74pct), Everbright Bank (+1.73pct), and Wuxi Bank (+1.53pct) [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in joint-stock banks due to their low valuations and expected performance recovery, recommending banks such as Pudong Development Bank and China Merchants Bank [12]. - It also highlights investment opportunities in city commercial banks, particularly in regions like Chongqing and Shanghai, where economic growth and credit demand are strong [12].