延续弱势，成本端存在一定支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp market continues to be weak, but there is some support on the cost side. It is recommended to approach it with an interval oscillation mindset [1][2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The pulp futures trend in Q1 2025 can be divided into three stages: from January 2 to 10, it dropped significantly due to limited new orders from downstream paper enterprises and high - price transaction difficulties; from January 13 to February 5, it rebounded as international pulp mills raised prices; from February 5 to the present, it declined from a high level because of high port inventories and low gross margins in the downstream paper industry [7] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis - Import Volume in January: Global pulp production is stable at around 180 million tons. In 2022, China's pulp production was about 85.87 million tons, with a 5.01% year - on - year increase. In January 2025, China's coniferous pulp imports were 727,400 tons, a 1.51% month - on - month decrease and a 1.59% year - on - year increase; broadleaf pulp imports were 1.5398 million tons, a 9.29% month - on - month decrease and a 16.49% year - on - year increase. International pulp mills have production cut plans, so the growth rate of pulp imports may slow down [13] - Foreign Market Quotation Increase: Suzano announced a price increase for eucalyptus broadleaf pulp in April 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and a $60/ton increase in Europe and the US. Canada also raised the outer - market quotation of bleached coniferous pulp in March 2025. The price increase of international pulp mills supports the bottom price of imported broadleaf pulp [16] - Inventory Decline in Major Domestic Ports: After reaching a record high, the domestic pulp port inventory has gradually declined. The weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.9593 million tons, a 1.51% decrease from last week, with the decline narrowing by 2.79 percentage points. Except for Changshu Port, the inventory in other regions and ports decreased month - on - month [17] - Differentiated Performance of Downstream Operating Load Rates: Global pulp apparent consumption is stable at around 180 million tons, and the supply - demand is basically balanced in the long run. In China, waste pulp consumption accounts for 63% of total pulp consumption. As of March 27, 2025, the operating load rate of domestic broadleaf pulp increased by 1 percentage point, while that of chemimechanical pulp decreased by 3 percentage points [19][23] - Low Gross Margin of Imported Coniferous Pulp: In March 2025, the arrival cost was $795/ton. As of March 27, the gross margin of Silver Star pulp was - 1.28%, a 1.19 - percentage - point decrease from last week. It is expected that the gross margin of imported coniferous pulp will remain low [26][27] - Price Decline of Coniferous and Broadleaf Pulp: As of March 27, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 6,357 yuan/ton, a 0.97% decrease from last week; the weekly average price of imported broadleaf pulp was 4,660 yuan/ton, a 0.34% decrease. Due to the low gross margin of the downstream paper industry, high - price transactions in the pulp market are still restricted [30] 3. Future Outlook - In terms of imports, the growth rate of pulp imports may slow down due to production cut plans of international pulp mills. The domestic pulp port inventory is decreasing. Downstream paper enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm has declined, but the price increase of international pulp mills pushes up the cost of imported broadleaf pulp, so it is recommended to use an interval oscillation approach [32][33]