苹果季报：低库存提供一定支撑，盘面易涨难跌

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The low inventory level provides certain support for the apple futures market, and the market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to adopt a bullish bias in trading strategies [1][2][46]. - In April, it is a crucial time for apple inventory reduction. After the festival, as the temperature rises and storage costs increase, the willingness of fruit farmers and merchants to sell may strengthen. With the end of the holiday, the impact of citrus fruits on apples has passed, and apple demand is expected to recover [2][20][41]. - The purchase price of new - season apples was relatively low in the early stage, which may weaken the reluctance - to - sell sentiment of fruit farmers and merchants later, facilitating the inventory reduction process [2][13][46]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In the first quarter, the main contract of apple futures, AP2505, generally showed a pattern of bottom - rebound, which can be divided into two stages. From January 2 to January 10, it was in a downward trend as the number of merchants in Shandong was small, the Spring Festival stocking volume was lower than the same period last year, and the weakening spot price drove the market down. From January 13 to the present, it has maintained a strong trend due to the low inventory level [6]. 2. Apple Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cold - Storage Inventory - As of March 27, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory of apples was about 411,260 tons, a decrease of 1.408 million tons compared with the same period last year, at a relatively low level in the past five years. The low inventory provides support for the market [1][10][45]. - The storage profit of 80 and above first - and second - grade apples in Qixia, Shandong is 0.29 yuan per catty. Merchants have less price - holding sentiment and more price - following sales, which is conducive to inventory reduction [13]. 2.2 Market Sales Performance - The demand price elasticity coefficient of apples is about - 0.34, indicating that apple demand is inelastic to price changes, and only a significant price drop can significantly increase the inventory reduction speed [16]. - As of March 27, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 31.13%, a decrease of 2.47 percentage points from the previous week and 10.28 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 51.06%. The sales in Shandong and Shaanxi are good, and 4 - month is a critical time for inventory reduction [20]. 2.3 Import Situation - China's overall import scale of fresh apples is small, accounting for about 1% of the total output from 2010 - 2020. In February 2025, the import volume was 0.14 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.71% and a year - on - year increase of 54.07%. The import volume from January to February 2025 was 0.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60.09%. It is expected that the import scale will remain at the current level [24]. 2.4 Export Situation - China's fresh apples are mainly exported to Southeast Asian countries. In February 2025, the export volume was about 68,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.28% and a year - on - year increase of 26.64%. The first quarter is the export peak season, and it is expected that the export volume will remain high, which will help reduce inventory [27][30]. 2.5 Apple Demand - In February 2025, fruit prices rose to a high level. As of March 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was about 7.58 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than the same period last year. The impact of citrus fruits on apples has passed, and apple demand has recovered [35]. 2.6 Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption - Months with a high probability of price increase are September, November, and December. September is affected by inventory clearance, new - season apple supply, and festival demand; November and December are driven by new - fruit supply and festival effects [40]. - Months with a high probability of price decline are April, August, and October. April is a critical inventory - reduction period; August faces challenges such as the impact of seasonal fruits and quality decline; October is affected by the large - scale listing of new - season apples [41]. 3. Future Outlook - On the supply side, the low inventory level provides support for the market. On the demand side, the overall sales speed in the production area is accelerating, and the export is expected to remain at a high level. It is recommended to adopt a bullish bias in trading strategies [45][46].