定量策略周观点总第156周：交易现实，不忘梦想-2025-03-30

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing "non-US asset wave correction trade" and suggests a cautious approach as the market returns to fundamental data with the upcoming tariff implementations and earnings season [1] - The report indicates a shift in market sentiment, with a focus on defensive sectors such as finance and cyclical stocks, as the A-share market experiences downward pressure [38] - The report highlights the potential for a rebound in the US stock market if further adjustments occur, suggesting a re-entry into the market [35] Global Asset Allocation Insights - The A-share market has shown a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.4% and the ChiNext Index down 1.12%, indicating a significant drop in small-cap stocks [33] - The Hong Kong market has also experienced volatility, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.11% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.36% [34] - The US stock market has shown a "rise then fall" pattern, with the Dow Jones down 0.96%, the S&P 500 down 1.53%, and the Nasdaq down 2.59% [34] A-Share Market Timing Insights - The report suggests maintaining a lower position in A-shares due to weak financial data and the upcoming tariff evaluations, indicating a defensive market phase [38] - The report notes a significant shift in market style, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap growth stocks, and a strong performance in financial and consumer sectors [38] - The report indicates that foreign capital is showing signs of outflow, with a notable increase in the willingness to sell [39] Hong Kong Market Timing Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook for the Hong Kong market, with passive foreign capital continuing to buy, although there is a noted reduction in positions in previously favored stocks [39] - The report highlights that the market sentiment has shown signs of recovery, but there is a growing accumulation of short positions [39] - The report identifies potential outperformers in the Hong Kong market, including sectors such as materials, consumption, and pharmaceuticals [42] Industry Selection Insights - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, steel, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, military, and semiconductors [46] - The report indicates a current allocation of 40% growth and 60% dividend signals, with a focus on high-quality dividend stocks and cyclical sectors [44] - The report suggests that the recent market liquidity inflow has favored sectors like industrial manufacturing, essential consumption, materials, and real estate [32]