行业周报：港口煤价止跌暂稳，否极泰来重视煤炭配置-2025-03-30

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that port coal prices have stabilized after a slight decline, indicating a potential bottoming out phase for coal prices. The focus is on coal asset allocation due to the current market conditions [3][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term contracts and self-rescue actions by coal companies to support price stabilization. The annual contract price mechanism has been effective since 2017, aiming for a balance in profitability between coal and electricity sectors [3][4] - The report suggests that macroeconomic policies and capital market support are expected to drive demand and prices upward in the coal sector, particularly after the upcoming policy implementations post the "Two Sessions" in 2025 [4][12] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - The coal sector is viewed as entering a "Golden Era 2.0," with core value assets expected to rebound. The current weak domestic economy and favorable international conditions make coal stocks an attractive investment option [4][12] - The report identifies four main investment themes: dividend logic, cyclical logic, diversified aluminum elasticity, and growth logic, with specific companies highlighted under each theme [4][12] Key Indicators Overview - The coal market experienced a slight decline of 0.1% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.11 percentage points. The PE ratio for the coal sector is 10.4, and the PB ratio is 1.22 [7][9] - The report provides detailed statistics on coal prices, production rates, and consumption patterns, indicating a slight decrease in coal prices and production rates, while electricity consumption has also seen a decline [15][16] Coal Price Trends - The report notes that the CCTD Q5500 coal price is at 676 CNY/ton, down 6 CNY/ton from the previous week, while the Qinhuangdao port price for Q5500 Shanxi-produced coal is at 665 CNY/ton, also down 6 CNY/ton [3][15] - The report highlights the ongoing high costs of imported coal, with Indonesian coal priced at 468 CNY/ton and Australian coal at 697 CNY/ton, indicating limited demand for imports [3][15] Production and Consumption Metrics - As of March 23, the operating rate of 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is at 82.1%, a slight decrease of 0.5 percentage points [3][15] - The daily coal consumption of coastal power plants is reported at 1.844 million tons, down 7.6 thousand tons from the previous week, reflecting seasonal demand fluctuations [3][15]