格林大华期货养殖产业季报：玉米中线区间运行，生猪供给持续增加，鸡蛋重心下移、近弱远强

Report Information - Report Title: Green Dahua Futures Breeding Industry Quarterly Report - Corn Mid - line Range Operation, Continuous Increase in Pig Supply, Egg Center of Gravity Moving Down, Near - term Weak and Long - term Strong [2] - Report Date: March 30, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Zhang Xiaojun [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - Corn: Mid - term, after the seasonal supply pressure is released, the domestic supply pattern may gradually tighten, and the price has partially reflected the upward expectation. Long - term, it maintains the pricing logic of import substitution + planting cost. The trading strategy is to maintain a range trading idea for the long - term, a low - buying idea for the mid - term, and the short - term price will run in the range of 2250 - 2300 [17][108][109]. - Pigs: In 2025, the pig supply enters an upward cycle, and the supply in the second quarter will continue to increase, which may put pressure on the spot price. The futures price will follow the spot price for basis repair trading, and attention can be paid to the band trading opportunities when the price rises and meets resistance [62][64][113]. - Eggs: Mid - term, the supply pressure in the second quarter is expected to increase, and the breeding profit may turn negative. Long - term, if the capacity reduction in the first half of the year is less than expected, the supply pressure may continue to the second half of the year. Before large - scale culling, maintain a short - selling idea [85][89][121]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1上期回顾 - Market Performance in the First Quarter: Corn futures broke through and rose, with the 2505 contract rising 1.88% to 2271 yuan/ton; pig futures fluctuated strongly, with the 2505 contract rising 1.93% to 13450 yuan/ton; egg futures broke down, with the 2505 contract falling 7.62% to 3017 yuan/ton [9][13]. - Strategy Review: In early December 2024, it was suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of buying corn on dips. After the Spring Festival, it was continuously suggested to pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling pigs and eggs on rallies [13]. 3.2本期分析 3.2.1 Corn - Macro Logic: The domestic and foreign liquidity is looser than expected, and the geopolitical situation has improved, so the macro - driving force has weakened [16]. - Industry Logic: It may enter the passive inventory - building cycle, and attention should be paid to policies such as directional rice/imported corn auctions and grain import policies [17]. - Supply - Demand Logic - Supply: Globally, the corn production and inventory have been reduced, and the supply situation is gradually tightening. In the US, the supply - demand remains relatively loose. In China, in the long - term, there is still a gap between production and demand, and the pricing logic of substitutes remains unchanged. In the 24/25 year, the import volume is expected to decrease significantly, and the domestic supply - demand pattern may shift from loose to basically balanced. In the medium - term, after the seasonal supply pressure is released, the supply pattern may gradually tighten. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the policy grain release rhythm, wheat substitution scale, etc. [17] - Consumption: In 2025, the pig production capacity increases, and the存栏 of egg - laying and meat - eating poultry remains high. The feed consumption maintains rigid demand, and the deep - processing consumption is stable with a slight increase, providing rigid support for the corn price. In the second quarter, attention should be paid to the inventory - building strength of downstream feed enterprises and the changes in the存栏 of pigs and poultry [17]. - Trading Strategy: Long - term, maintain a range trading idea; mid - term, maintain a low - buying idea with a neutral target of 2350; short - term, the price runs in the range of 2250 - 2300, with support at 2250 - 2260 and resistance at 2300 - 2310 [18][109]. 3.2.2 Pigs - Macro Logic: Domestically, focus on the interaction between China's CPI trend and pig prices. In February 2025, the CPI was - 0.7% year - on - year. After excluding the impact of the Spring Festival month shift, the CPI still increased year - on - year [60][111]. - Industry Logic: Under the background of the normalization of diseases after African swine fever, passive capacity reduction leads to significant periodic fluctuations in pig prices, with a shorter cycle and higher frequency. The process of large - scale concentration in the breeding end is not over, and enterprises with low costs and good financial conditions continue to increase capacity utilization and expand market share [61][112]. - Supply - Demand Logic - Supply: Excluding the impact of winter diseases, the pig supply in 2025 enters an upward cycle. The sow存栏 data and new - born piglet data indicate that the supply in the second quarter will continue to increase, especially the incremental pork from group weight - gain and second - fattening after the Spring Festival. The spot price may be under pressure, and the support level is 13 yuan/kg [62][64][113]. - Consumption: The pork consumption is relatively rigid, mainly following seasonal patterns in the short - term, and long - term attention should be paid to the transformation of the consumption structure [81]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price will follow the spot price for basis repair trading. Pay attention to the band trading opportunities when the price rises and meets resistance. The upper pressure levels for LH2505, LH2507, and LH2509 are 13700 - 14000, 13600 - 13700, and 14300 - 14500 respectively [64][115]. 3.2.3 Eggs - Macro Logic: The domestic and foreign liquidity release is less than expected. Domestically, focus on raw material prices and CPI changes [84][117]. - Industry Logic: The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for 4 years, and the large - scale rate continues to increase, which will change the breeding subject structure and production efficiency [84][117]. - Supply - Demand Logic - Supply: The存栏 of grandparent - stock egg - laying chickens increases, and the import proportion rises significantly. The存栏 of laying hens is slowly increasing. The culling rhythm is slow due to breeding profits. In the second quarter, the supply is expected to increase, and the inventory level may be higher than the same period [85][87][118]. - Consumption: The downstream consumption improved in late February, and it is expected to increase in March, but the increase may be limited due to lower vegetable prices [85][118]. - Trading Strategy: Before large - scale culling, maintain a short - selling idea. If large - scale culling starts, close short positions on near - term contracts and consider long positions on far - term contracts [90][122].