政策进入敏感期，油脂油料波动或将放大

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - The protein meal market is affected by South American soybeans and US policies, with potential supply - demand imbalances in the domestic market and price fluctuations in the futures market [2][141]. - The global oil market, including US soybean oil, Malaysian palm oil, and domestic oils, faces uncertainties such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors [3][142]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Part I: Market Review - CBOT Soybeans: In Q1 2025, it first rose and then fell. Factors such as drought in Argentina, USDA reports, and tariff policies influenced its price movements [7]. - Domestic Soybean Meal: It was slightly stronger than CBOT soybeans. It followed the upward trend of CBOT soybeans in January and then showed its own characteristics due to domestic factors like logistics and inventory [7]. - International Oils: They fluctuated within a range. US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil were affected by factors such as biodiesel policies, weather, and export data [8]. - Domestic Oils: They were stronger than the international market. Different oils had different price trends influenced by import costs, policies, and inventory [8]. Part II: Protein Meal - South American Soybeans: Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and exports are increasing. Although some regions had drought, the overall harvest is still expected to be abundant. The premium of Brazilian soybeans is rising [13][14]. - US Soybeans: The expected planting area for the new year may decrease. The market is concerned about the planting area report and US tariff policies. In the short - term, CBOT soybeans will continue to oscillate at a low level [22][50]. - Domestic Soybean Meal: In Q2, domestic imported soybeans will arrive in large quantities, and the supply of soybean meal will be abundant. Although the demand from pig and poultry farming remains high, there may be a situation of oversupply, and the spot and basis prices will be under pressure [78]. Part III: Oils - US Soybean Oil: In Q2, it still faces demand uncertainties. The export growth space may be squeezed by South American soybean oil, and the biodiesel demand outlook is not optimistic. It is advisable to adopt a range - oscillation strategy [91]. - Malaysian Palm Oil: It enters the production - increasing cycle in Q2, with significant supply growth. However, the export is facing problems, and price cuts may be needed to promote sales. There is a risk of price decline [105][107]. - Domestic Oils: In Q2, the differentiation of domestic oils will be prominent. Soybean oil has a demand advantage and may start to accumulate inventory. Palm oil has weak supply and demand, and the price difference with other oils may return. Rapeseed oil has sufficient short - term supply but may accelerate inventory reduction in Q2 [139]. Part IV: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - Protein Meal: The international market focuses on US soybean planting area and tariff policies. The domestic market may face an oversupply of soybean meal. For the Dalian soybean meal market, it is advisable to buy on dips [141]. - Oils: US soybean oil should be treated with a range - oscillation strategy. Malaysian palm oil may decline, and domestic oils will show differentiation. Operate by shorting palm oil at high prices and going long on the price differences between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils [142].