Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices rebounded from the low level. The closing prices of LC2504 and LC2505 increased by 1.1% and 1% respectively. The spot average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.2%. The prices of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased. The basic data still reflects the oversupply of lithium salt and the loosening of ore prices, but the pressure on lithium prices has weakened marginally. Core Lithium's Finnis project restart research is progressing smoothly, which may lead to a marginal decline in the cost support at the resource end. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts next Monday, the generation speed of new warehouse receipts needs to be continuously monitored [2][3][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Finniss Restart Research Progresses Smoothly, Focus on the Generation Rhythm of New Warehouse Receipts - Last week (03/24 - 03/28), lithium salt prices rebounded from the low level. The closing price of LC2504 increased by 1.1% to 73,900 yuan/ton, and that of LC2505 increased by 1% to 74,000 yuan/ton. The spot average prices of battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate decreased by 0.2% to 74,200 and 72,200 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the near - month contract of Liyang Zhonglian Gold lithium carbonate increased by 1.4% to 74,000 yuan/ton. The prices of lithium hydroxide slightly decreased. The electric - industrial price difference remained flat at 2,000 yuan/ton, and the price discount of battery - grade lithium hydroxide to battery - grade lithium carbonate remained flat at 4,500 yuan/ton [2][11] - Fundamentally, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate decreased by 628 tons to 17,300 tons, mainly due to the maintenance of some mica production lines and small fluctuations in salt lake output. The social inventory increased by 1,500 tons to 128,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down for the second consecutive week. The FMB ore price continued to decline to 837.5 US dollars/ton, and the price adjustment speed slowed down marginally compared with the previous week. In general, the fundamental data still reflects the two major negatives of salt - end oversupply and ore price loosening, but in the absence of new negatives, the pressure of fundamentals on lithium prices has weakened marginally. In terms of news, Core Lithium announced that the restart research of its Finnis project is progressing smoothly, and it is expected to reduce the subsequent operating costs through various means. The final restart research is expected to be completed in June 2025. During the industry downturn, the cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement measures of various projects may lead to a marginal decline in the cost support at the resource end. In terms of delivery game, the position of the main contract LC2505 decreased by 38,000 lots to 218,000 lots. It is estimated that the cumulative amount of warehouse receipts put into storage since February is about 18,000 lots. After the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts next Monday, the generation speed of new warehouse receipts needs to be continuously monitored [3][12] 2. Weekly Industry News Review - Rio Tinto Group CEO Simon Trott said that the global annual demand for lithium may increase to 4 - 5 million tons in the future. Despite the current low lithium price, Rio Tinto is increasing its lithium industry layout. In March this year, Rio Tinto completed the acquisition of Allkem Limited for 6.7 billion US dollars [13] - ICE plans to launch battery - metal derivatives this year. An executive of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) said on March 25 that the exchange plans to launch derivatives of battery metals nickel, cobalt, and spodumene in London later this year [13] - Core Lithium announced that the restart research of its Finniss lithium mine project is progressing smoothly and is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2025. The company has terminated the last operation contract during the Finniss operation period and completed all obligations to third - parties, which reduces the current maintenance cost and is expected to reduce future operating costs under the new operation mode [13] - Four Indian state - owned enterprises are negotiating with Chilean miner SQM to acquire a 20% stake in its two lithium projects in Australia for 600 million US dollars, which is India's biggest effort to ensure the supply of key electric - vehicle battery metals [14] 3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industrial Chain 3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Loosen - The spot average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased from 831 US dollars/ton to 821 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.2% [12] 3.2 Lithium Salt: Futures Prices Rebound Slightly - The closing price of the near - month contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate (LC2504) increased by 1.1% to 73,940 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main contract (LC2505) increased by 1% to 74,000 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of Liyang Zhonglian Gold lithium carbonate increased by 1.4% to 74 yuan/kg [12] 3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Decline - The spot average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.1% to 33,635 yuan/ton, and the spot average price of energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.1% to 29,805 yuan/ton. The prices of ternary materials increased slightly, with the spot average price of ternary material 523 increasing by 1.2% to 104,280 yuan/ton. The spot average price of cobalt - acid lithium decreased by 0.5% to 209,000 yuan/ton [12] 3.4 Terminal: The Penetration Rate of New Energy Vehicles in China Rebounded in February - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China rebounded in February, but specific data is not provided in the text [44]
Finniss重启研究进展顺利，关注新仓单生成节奏
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-03-30 10:15