外汇期货周度报告：美国滞胀压力上升，市场风险偏好走低-2025-03-30

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Market risk appetite has declined, with most global stock markets falling, bond yields mostly dropping, the US dollar index slightly down, non - US currencies mostly depreciating, gold prices rising, and the VIX index increasing. The US is facing rising stagflation pressure, and the market is waiting for the details of US counter - tariffs on April 2nd [2][10] - Trump's tariff policies are disturbing the market, increasing inflation expectations and the risk of stagflation. The US economic data shows rising inflation pressure, and the inflation expectations have risen ahead of actual inflation [3][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite decreased. Most stock markets fell, bond yields mostly declined with the US Treasury yield at 4.25%. The US dollar index slightly dropped to 104, non - US currencies mostly depreciated, gold rose 2.1% to $3085 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 21.6, and the spot commodity index increased with Brent crude oil up 2.7% to $74.4 per barrel [2][10] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly fell. In developed countries, the S&P 500 dropped 1.53%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%. Trump's tariff policies increased risk - aversion and pressured US stocks. US economic data showed rising inflation pressure, and the US manufacturing PMI declined while the service PMI improved. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI rose but the service PMI declined. The US core PCE rebounded, and inflation expectations increased [11][12] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield at 4.25%. Eurozone countries' yields mostly fell, and emerging market bond yields varied. US tariff policies supported the bond market, but rising inflation expectations limited the decline of US Treasury yields. The US dollar's stabilization increased pressure on emerging market bonds and exchange rates [15][18] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index oscillated and slightly declined to 104, and most non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB fell 0.18%, the euro and the pound rose slightly, the yen fell 0.35%, and commodity - related currencies mostly weakened [26][29] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold rose 2.1% to a new high of $3085 per ounce as investors sought safety due to tariff policies and stock market declines. However, short - term gold prices may be volatile. Brent crude oil rose 2.7% to $74.4 per barrel, and commodities overall oscillated and increased. Overseas tariff expectations boosted non - ferrous metals, but weak demand pressured industrial products [30][32] 3. Hot - Spot Tracking - The US core PCE in February exceeded expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and a month - on - month increase of 0.4%. This indicates high short - term inflation pressure. Trump's proposed 25% tariff on imported cars and the upcoming counter - tariffs are expected to intensify market concerns, leading to a continuous decline in global market risk appetite and rising inflation [33][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: China's official manufacturing PMI for March - Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision, eurozone's March CPI, US March ISM manufacturing PMI, and US February JOLTs job openings - Wednesday: US March ADP employment figures - Thursday: US weekly initial jobless claims, US March ISM non - manufacturing PMI, and ECB's March interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: US March non - farm payrolls, Fed Chairman Powell's speech, and China's Tomb - Sweeping Festival holiday [37]