短期市场震荡，等待货币宽松

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate as the stance of monetary policy remains unclear. The manufacturing PMI in March may perform well, weakening market sentiment at the beginning of the week. However, after the quarter - end, the pressure on the capital side will ease, and the bullish sentiment in the market will heat up again, with the yield curve likely to steepen [2][14]. - The bond market is in an oscillatory phase of transitioning from a bear to a bull market. The short - end varieties are expected to outperform the long - end ones. The probability of the long - end interest rate breaking through the mid - March high is low unless there is evidence of continuous economic recovery in Q2 [15][16]. - The second half of April is an important observation period to determine whether the monetary policy can continue to loosen. The bond market is expected to show an oscillatory trend [16]. Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From March 24th to March 30th, treasury bond futures rose slightly. The settlement prices of the main continuous contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures on March 28th were 102.448, 105.665, 107.885, and 116.080 yuan respectively, up 0.080, 0.345, 0.420, and 0.870 yuan from the previous weekend [13]. 1.2 Next Week's Views - The market is expected to oscillate. The manufacturing PMI in March may perform well, weakening market sentiment at the beginning of the week. After the quarter - end, the capital pressure will ease, and the bullish sentiment will rise again, with the curve likely to steepen [2][14]. - The long - end interest rate has upward momentum, but the probability of breaking through the mid - March high is low. The short - end varieties may outperform the long - end ones, and the bond market will show an oscillatory trend [15][16]. 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 92 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 822.801 billion yuan and a net financing of 691.865 billion yuan. The net financing of local government bonds and treasury bonds increased, while that of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased [19][20]. 2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields declined. As of March 28th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.53%, 1.66%, 1.81%, and 2.03% respectively, down 4.42, 3.25, 2.28, and 2.50 basis points from the previous weekend [24]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures rose slightly. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 37,714, 56,180, 75,843, and 120,289 lots respectively, down 5,100, 7,655, 12,821, and 21,531 lots from the previous weekend. The open interests were 108,554, 162,825, 190,066, and 113,822 lots respectively, up 4,609, 10,014, 672, and down 6,184 lots from the previous weekend [34][37]. 3.2 Basis and IRR - This week, the basis of each variety oscillated at a low level. In the short term, the market is oscillatory, and the basis is also in a low - level oscillation pattern. One can moderately focus on the positive arbitrage strategy of TS. After Q2, the capital side is expected to loosen, and the basis may gradually rise [41]. 3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of March 28th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts 2506 - 2509 were - 0.032, - 0.020, - 0.040, and - 0.120 yuan respectively, up 0.010, 0.000, down 0.105, and up 0.010 yuan from the previous weekend [44]. 4. Weekly Observation of the Capital Side - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 30.36 billion yuan. As of March 28th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 2.26%, 2.05%, 1.73%, and 1.94% respectively, up 43.91, 28.21, down 3.20, and up 18.20 basis points from the previous weekend [49][50]. 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield oscillated. As of March 28th, the US dollar index fell 0.12% to 104.0336 from the previous weekend, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 2 basis points to 4.27%, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds was inverted by 245.6 basis points [57]. 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices and agricultural product prices both rose. As of March 28th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,761.81, 6,431.0, and 1,780.64 points respectively, up 48.47, 83.56, and 22.40 points from the previous weekend. The prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.94, 4.84, and 7.58 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.05, 0.01, and 0.08 yuan/kg from the previous weekend [60]. 7. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate. Considering the relatively reasonable valuation of the bond market and the expected gradual loosening of the central bank's stance, it is recommended to focus on the opportunity of laying out medium - term long positions on the left side [19][61].