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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating; Polysilicon: Bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, there were many disturbances on the supply side of industrial silicon. The market rumors of production cuts by large factories had limited impact on the market. For polysilicon, prices oscillated this week, with expected inventory reduction in April and potential price pressure after May. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continued to rise this week, but may face price adjustments after the peak installation season [2][3][11][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2505 contract of industrial silicon increased by 85 yuan/ton week-on-week to 9855 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 10200 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 9450 yuan/ton. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon increased by 135 yuan/ton to 43650 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N-type reclaimed feedstock remained flat week-on-week at 41700 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Supply Disturbances Frequent, Polysilicon to Start Warehouse Receipt Registration Soon Industrial Silicon - This week, the industrial silicon futures oscillated. The weekly output was 78,400 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.78%. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 13,000 tons week-on-week, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 6200 tons week-on-week. There were many supply-side disturbances this week, but the market reaction was weak [11] Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon slightly declined. The overall operating rate was around 67.5%, a week-on-week increase of 0.12 percentage points. The weekly output was 44,700 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.22%, and the inventory was 48,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.3%. It is expected that the price center of organic silicon will continue to move up [12] Polysilicon - This week, the price of polysilicon oscillated. As of March 23, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 253,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 14,000 tons. The industry-wide inventory was about 450,000 tons. In April, the polysilicon production schedule was adjusted down to 98,000 tons, and it is expected to reduce inventory by more than 30,000 tons. After May, the spot price may face pressure again [3][12] Silicon Wafers - This week, the price of silicon wafers continued to rise, and there was obvious inventory reduction. As of March 23, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 19.7GW, a week-on-week decrease of 3.1GW. In April, the downstream production schedule continued to increase. The earthquake in Myanmar may lead to a short-term reduction in silicon wafer output and stimulate price increases, but prices may not remain high after the peak installation season [13] Battery Cells - This week, the price of battery cells continued to rise, and there was obvious inventory reduction. As of March 24, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 1.51GW, a week-on-week decrease of 0.42GW. In April, the domestic battery cell production schedule continued to increase. It is expected that there is still room for price increases in the short term, but prices may loosen after the peak installation season [14] Components - This week, the price of components continued to rise. It is estimated that the component production schedule will increase to 68GW in April. The subsequent component prices are still optimistic, but the price increase may converge [14] 3.3 Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - The upper limit of the industrial silicon futures price depends on the hedging point, and the lower limit needs to consider factors such as the large-scale production cuts of small northern factories. The futures price may operate between 9500 - 10500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the interval trading opportunities and the reverse arbitrage opportunity of Si2511 - Si2512 [4][17] Polysilicon - March - April may be the best fundamental period for the photovoltaic industry chain this year. It is expected that the price of N-type dense reclaimed feedstock will still be supported. After May, the spot price may face pressure again. In April, polysilicon will start warehouse receipt registration. Unilateral trading can consider going long on PS2506 at low prices and shorting PS2511 at high prices. The positive arbitrage of PS2506 - PS2511 can be held [4][17] 3.4 Hot News Compilation - Germany's new round of photovoltaic auctions awarded 317MW of capacity, and the winning bid price increased. - The production cut amplitude of organic silicon in April was determined, and the consumption of industrial silicon is expected to decrease by more than 10,000 tons. - The earthquake in Myanmar had an impact on the silicon wafer production in the western region of China, but had little impact on the supply and demand of polysilicon [18] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, inventory, and other data [8]