杭氧股份（002430）：终端气价逐步企稳，底部逆势扩张加码后续业绩弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hangzhou Oxygen Plant Co., Ltd. [2][7] Core Views - The company is experiencing slight revenue growth in 2024, but profits are declining, and cash flow is under pressure. Despite the ongoing industry downturn, the company is expanding its operations, with a 44% year-on-year increase in new gas project contracts, enhancing future profit potential [6][7]. - The gas sales segment is under pressure, with revenue and gross margins declining, while the air separation equipment segment shows revenue growth despite a slight decrease in gross margin [6][7]. - The report anticipates revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 167.8 billion, 190.9 billion, and 209.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to be 11.0 billion, 13.6 billion, and 14.6 billion yuan for the same years [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 137.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.06%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.22 billion yuan, a decline of 24.15% [6]. - The gas sales business generated revenue of 81.00 billion yuan, down 1.15% year-on-year, while the air separation equipment business saw revenue of 45.25 billion yuan, up 6.77% [6]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 20.85%, down 2.06 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 7.23%, down 2.35 percentage points [6][15]. Business Segment Analysis - The air separation equipment segment signed contracts for 22 large and medium-sized units, with a total order value of 55.12 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.8% year-on-year. However, overseas orders increased, accounting for 17% of total orders [6][7]. - The company signed six new gas projects in 2024, with an oxygen production capacity of 650,000 cubic meters, representing a 44.4% increase year-on-year [6][7]. Market Conditions - The report indicates that terminal gas prices are stabilizing, with liquid oxygen prices showing a slight increase. As of late March, the average price of liquid oxygen was 429 yuan per ton, up 0.47% year-on-year [6][7].