嘉里物流（00636）：货代盈利高增，综合物流承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 8.50 HKD [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 58.27 billion HKD for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.9%, and a net profit of 1.54 billion HKD, up 94.8% year-on-year, which is in line with expectations [1][4]. - The international freight forwarding segment saw a profit of 1.95 billion HKD, a 39% increase year-on-year, primarily due to rising international sea and air freight rates [1][2]. - The comprehensive logistics segment experienced a profit decline of 3% year-on-year to 1.25 billion HKD, mainly due to weak demand [1][3]. - For 2025, it is anticipated that international shipping prices will significantly decline from the high base of 2024, while comprehensive logistics business is expected to improve with a recovery in overall macro demand [1][4]. Summary by Sections International Freight Forwarding - The revenue for the international freight forwarding business in 2024 was 43.83 billion HKD, a 35% increase year-on-year, with profits of 1.95 billion HKD, up 39% [2]. - Profit contributions by market include: Mainland China 670 million HKD (yoy +33%), Americas 610 million HKD (yoy +58%), Asia 320 million HKD (yoy +44%), Europe, Middle East, and Africa 230 million HKD (yoy +29%), Hong Kong 60 million HKD (yoy +27%), and Oceania 60 million HKD (yoy -8%) [2]. Comprehensive Logistics - The comprehensive logistics business reported a revenue of 14.45 billion HKD in 2024, a 4% decline year-on-year, with profits of 1.25 billion HKD, down 3% [3]. - Profit contributions by market include: Hong Kong 520 million HKD (yoy -12%), Asia 360 million HKD (yoy +25%), Mainland China 350 million HKD (yoy -11%), and Oceania 20 million HKD (yoy +28%) [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down by 15% and 18% to 1.34 billion HKD and 1.44 billion HKD, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 1.54 billion HKD [4]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 15% to 8.50 HKD based on a PE ratio of 11.5x for 2025E [4].