Pangang (SZ:000629) EBSCN·2025-03-30 12:12Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to see performance recovery in 2025 as vanadium prices are projected to rebound after hitting a low [3][4] - The company's 2024 annual report shows a decline in revenue and net profit, with revenue at 13.209 billion yuan, down 8.2% year-on-year, and net profit at 285 million yuan, down 73% year-on-year [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.735 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.2% year-on-year and 17.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 102 million yuan, down 45.9% year-on-year but up 122% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The company produced 54,300 tons of vanadium products in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, but the average price of vanadium pentoxide fell by 25.9% to 80,800 yuan per ton [2] - The gross margin for vanadium products decreased to 10.4%, down 17 percentage points from the previous year, negatively impacting overall performance [2] Business Segments - The titanium segment saw the successful launch of a 60,000 tons/year molten salt chlorination titanium dioxide project, with total titanium dioxide production of 252,900 tons, a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year [2] - The gross margin for titanium dioxide was 4.3%, down 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, affected by high raw material prices [2] Market Outlook - The demand for vanadium in energy storage is expected to increase significantly, with a projected supply of 20,000 tons of vanadium pentoxide in 2025, a 35% increase from 2024 [3] - The steel sector's demand for vanadium is anticipated to improve following the implementation of mandatory standards for rebar [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are 523 million yuan and 699 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 804 million yuan [3][4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 51, 38, and 33 times, respectively [4]