XD INC(02400) 开源证券·2025-03-30 13:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][13] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 5.012 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 48%, and a net profit of 812 million yuan, recovering from a loss of 83 million yuan in 2023. The growth is primarily driven by the strong performance of self-developed games and the user growth of TapTap [5][9] - The gaming business revenue reached 3.434 billion yuan in 2024, up 64% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 63%, an increase of 16 percentage points. TapTap generated revenue of 1.578 billion yuan, a 21.6% increase year-on-year, maintaining a stable gross margin of 84% [5][9] - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.286 billion yuan, 1.592 billion yuan, and 1.757 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.6 yuan, 3.2 yuan, and 3.6 yuan [5][9] Game Development and Growth - The top five games contributing to revenue in 2024 were "Let's Go Muffin," "Sausage Party," "Lily of the Valley," "Torchlight," and "Ragnarok M." The game "Heart Town," launched in July 2024, is expected to significantly contribute to revenue in 2025 [6] - The company has a pipeline of games, including "Iser," expected to launch in the second half of 2025, and "RO2," anticipated for 2026, which will continue to drive growth in the gaming business [6] TapTap Platform Performance - TapTap's monthly active users (MAU) reached 44.05 million in 2024, a 23% year-on-year increase. The growth is attributed to the launch of popular new games and exclusive partnerships [7] - The platform's revenue is expected to continue growing due to its zero-commission advantage and increasing user base, with potential for higher advertising prices and loading rates [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - The company's financial metrics for 2023A to 2027E show a significant recovery and growth trajectory, with revenues projected to reach 6.148 billion yuan in 2025 and 7.205 billion yuan in 2026 [9] - The net profit margin is expected to improve, with net profit margins of 20.9%, 22.1%, and 22.5% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]