KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-30 13:13Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The performance of the food and beverage index showed a 0.4% increase from March 24 to March 28, ranking third among primary sub-industries, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.4 percentage points. The leading sub-industries included meat products (+2.9%), dairy products (+2.1%), and beer (+2.0%) [4][11][12] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw significant performance differentiation among companies, with several reporting improved earnings. For instance, Shuanghui Development experienced comprehensive profit improvement, while Tianwei Foods exceeded previous profit forecasts due to strong demand and reduced raw material costs [4][11] - The outlook for the first quarter of 2025 suggests that the industry is at a bottoming phase, with expectations of gradual performance recovery in subsequent quarters. It is recommended to increase allocations in the liquor, beer, and snack sectors [4][11] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The food and beverage index outperformed the market with a 0.4% increase, ranking third among industries. Key performers included Miaokelando, Guangming Meat, and Jiahe Foods, while Maikui'er, Lianhua Holdings, and Xiwang Foods faced declines [12][13] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased. For example, the price of fresh milk was 3.1 yuan/kg, down 12.5% year-on-year, while pork prices increased by 2.3% year-on-year to 20.9 yuan/kg [18][21] - The price of imported barley fell by 10.4% year-on-year, which may alleviate cost pressures for beer companies [27][28] Company Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, Ganyuan Foods, and Ximai Foods, with each showing strong growth potential and strategic advantages in their respective markets [5][49]