ACEG(SH:600502) Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-03-30 14:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's revenue and profit are under pressure, but the dividend payout ratio has increased [2] - The company is expected to face challenges due to local government debt management and the downturn in the real estate sector, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2026 [7] - Despite these challenges, the company is positioned to benefit from market expansion and increased concentration in the industry, particularly in Anhui province [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 91,244 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.9% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is expected to be 1,345 million, a decrease of 13.4% compared to the previous year [7] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.9 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, which represents 34.46% of the net profit attributable to the parent company, an increase of 5.73 percentage points from 2023 [7] - The operating cash flow for 2024 is expected to be 12.15 billion, a decrease of 24.56 billion year-on-year [7] - The company's asset-liability ratio is projected to be 86.5% at the end of 2024, an increase of 0.56 percentage points from the end of 2023 [7] Business Performance - The construction business is expected to achieve a revenue of 763.44 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.57% and a gross margin of 10.38% [7] - The real estate development business is projected to generate a revenue of 65.19 billion in 2024, a decrease of 8.85% year-on-year [7] - The company is focusing on quality improvement in its operations amidst the pressures from local government debt and the real estate sector downturn [7]