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有色金属周报:关税已敲定,地缘风云再起,坚定黄金主线-2025-03-30
Tebon Securities·2025-03-30 14:20

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Views - The report highlights the impact of the 25% tariff on imported cars and key components imposed by the Trump administration, which is expected to raise car prices and suppress consumer demand, potentially leading to layoffs in the automotive industry [4]. - Geopolitical tensions and tariffs have strengthened the safe-haven sentiment for gold, resulting in a significant increase in gold prices [4]. - The report notes a divergence in domestic metal prices, with copper prices declining due to weakened downstream consumption and high price suppression [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for a long-term bull market in precious metals, particularly gold, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - Precious Metals: Gold prices increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange closing at 721 CNY per gram, reflecting a weekly change of 2.0% and a yearly change of 39.0% [11]. - Industrial Metals: Prices are mixed, with copper prices down by 0.2% on the SHFE and 0.3% on the LME [34][35]. - Rare Earths and Tungsten: Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have decreased, while tungsten concentrate prices have increased [4]. - Energy Metals: Lithium carbonate prices have fallen, while cobalt prices have risen [4]. 2. Market Performance - The report indicates a significant drop in automotive manufacturer stock prices following the tariff announcement, with General Motors and Ford both declining over 3% [4]. - The report also notes that Tesla's stock rose due to its localized production strategy [4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Precious Metals: The report recommends investing in companies like Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and Yulong Co., as the actual interest rates decline, enhancing gold's investment value [4]. - Industrial Metals: The report suggests that aluminum-related stocks such as Shenhuo Co. and Tianshan Aluminum are likely to benefit from policy-driven economic improvements [4]. - New Materials: The report expresses optimism about sectors related to artificial intelligence materials and smart automotive components, recommending companies like Huada New Materials and Platinum New Materials [5].