煤炭行业周报：低卡煤涨价，非电需求改善及供给收缩预计将托底淡季煤价-2025-03-30

Investment Rating - The report gives a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that low-calorie coal prices have increased slightly, while thermal coal prices have decreased. The supply side is expected to contract due to safety inspections and maintenance, which will support coal prices during the off-season. The demand for non-electricity coal is improving, which is anticipated to stabilize coal prices [1]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are characterized by stable operations and high dividends. It also suggests关注淮北矿业, 平煤股份, and 电投能源 for their low valuation and growth potential [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The coal mining and washing industry reported operating revenue of 404.47 billion yuan in January-February, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%. The total profit was 50.66 billion yuan, down 47.3% year-on-year [9]. - A successful bid for coal exploration rights in Inner Mongolia was made for 2.85525 billion yuan, with estimated resources of 972 million tons [9]. Price Trends of Coal - As of March 28, the price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port was 665 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton week-on-week. Low-calorie coal prices increased slightly, with Q4500 and Q5000 at 526 and 592 yuan/ton, respectively [1][10]. - The report notes that the price index for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region decreased by 1 yuan/ton, while the price index for coking coal remained stable [10][13]. International Oil Price Movements - Brent crude oil futures increased by 2.18 USD/barrel to 73.49 USD/barrel, a rise of 3.06% [17]. Port Inventory and Shipping Costs - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased to 1.9744 million tons, up 4.26% week-on-week. The total coal inventory at these ports decreased to 30.947 million tons, down 0.76% week-on-week [22]. - Domestic coastal shipping costs fell by 2.28 yuan/ton to 37.12 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.80% [31]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, indicating their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2023-2026. For example, China Shenhua's stock price is 37.83 yuan with a market cap of 751.6 billion yuan [36].