全球货币变局研究四：“信任”渐退：全球贸易、货币的大迁徙

Group 1: Global Economic and Monetary System Changes - Since 2018, the global economic and monetary systems have undergone rapid restructuring, unprecedented in human history[3] - The deep integration of economies post-World War II has shifted towards a gradual decoupling, impacting global economic growth and asset trends[3] - Trust among nations, previously a foundation for global supply chains, has eroded, leading to increased focus on supply chain security over cost optimization[7] Group 2: Trade Dynamics and Currency Usage - Global trade as a percentage of GDP has reached historical highs, indicating increased interdependence among economies[9] - The share of U.S. imports from China has significantly decreased since 2018, while imports from countries like Vietnam and Mexico have increased[11] - The dollar's share in SWIFT international payments has remained dominant, but recent geopolitical tensions have raised concerns about its reliability[22] Group 3: Gold and Currency Reserves - The global allocation of foreign exchange reserves shows a significant reliance on the dollar, but there is a growing trend towards diversifying into gold[18] - The share of gold reserves in global official reserves is at a historical turning point, indicating a shift in asset allocation strategies[26] - Trade surplus countries are increasingly converting dollar earnings into gold through third-party nations, altering the traditional trade and currency cycle[27] Group 4: U.S. Trade Deficit and Policy Implications - The Trump administration's policies aimed at reducing the trade deficit may inadvertently strengthen the dollar's position, complicating the goal of reducing reliance on foreign borrowing[33] - The challenge remains for the U.S. to balance the need for trade surpluses with maintaining the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency[34]