AGRICULTURAL BANK OF CHINA(601288) 光大证券·2025-03-31 01:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288.SH) with a current price of 5.10 CNY [1]. Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China reported a revenue of 710.6 billion CNY for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 282.1 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 4.7% [4][5]. - The bank's annualized weighted average return on equity (ROAE) stands at 10.46%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [4]. - The bank's net interest income and non-interest income growth rates for the year were 1.6% and 5.5%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the first three quarters of 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The bank's revenue, pre-provision profit, and net profit growth rates for the year were 2.3%, 1.6%, and 4.7%, respectively, with improvements of 1, 0.1, and 1.3 percentage points compared to the first three quarters [5]. - The cost-to-income ratio and credit impairment losses as a percentage of revenue were 34.4% and 18.4%, showing changes of +0.5 and -1.1 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Asset and Loan Growth - By the end of 2024, the bank's interest-earning assets and loans grew by 8.2% and 10.2% year-on-year, although these growth rates decreased by 4.6 and 0.4 percentage points compared to the end of the third quarter [6]. - The bank's loan structure showed a focus on corporate, retail, and bill financing, with significant growth in key sectors such as manufacturing and green loans [6]. Deposit and Liability Management - The bank's interest-bearing liabilities and deposits grew by 8.2% and 4.7% year-on-year, with total deposits increasing by 1.3 trillion CNY [7]. - The structure of deposits improved, with a notable increase in demand deposits, which accounted for 41% of total deposits by year-end [7]. Interest Margin and Non-Interest Income - The net interest margin (NIM) for 2024 was 1.42%, narrowing by 18 basis points year-on-year [9]. - Non-interest income reached 129.9 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 5.5%, and the proportion of non-interest income to total revenue decreased slightly [10]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - By the end of 2024, the bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio and attention rate were 1.3% and 1.4%, respectively, both showing slight decreases [11]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio was 300%, indicating a robust risk mitigation capacity [12]. Capital Adequacy and Dividends - The core tier 1 capital ratio, tier 1 capital ratio, and total capital ratio were 11.4%, 13.6%, and 18.2%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous quarter [12]. - The bank announced a dividend of 84.66 billion CNY for 2024, maintaining a payout ratio of 30% [12]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to 0.83, 0.85, and 0.87 CNY, respectively [13]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.64 and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 6.11 for 2025 [14].