金信期货日刊-2025-03-31

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stock index is likely to experience short - term shock adjustment after continuous upward oscillations. It is recommended to adopt a short - term weak shock strategy [2]. - For today, it is advisable to view the market with a slightly stronger shock mindset [5]. - In the long - term, the supply intensity is high. As the traditional peak season approaches, attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand. Technically, there is a double golden cross [6]. - For glass, although the spot sales have improved with some cold - repairs of production lines and positive market sentiment due to policies, the actual demand remains to be observed. It should be viewed with a shock mindset [8]. - The alumina futures price is supported as the current price is close to the industry's average production cost of 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton. It should be viewed with a shock mindset [11]. - The futures 05 contract of caustic soda may be oversold. With the smooth commissioning of alumina plants, the short - term demand for caustic soda is not bad. From late March to April, there may be a supply - demand mismatch, and caustic soda is expected to bottom out and rebound [14]. - For urea, with high daily production and weakening industrial demand and the end of agricultural spring fertilization demand, it should be treated with high - level shock [17]. - For soybeans, the low auction成交率, rumors of faster customs clearance of imported soybeans, and limited supply from farmers support the price. After a short - term sharp decline, it is in low - level shock consolidation [20]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - After continuous upward oscillations, it has entered a "fatigued" state. Fundamentally, listed companies are in the intensive annual report disclosure period, and some funds seek risk - avoidance. Technically, there is a high - level MACD death cross, indicating a need for further adjustment [2]. General Market - Today, there is a slight decline, and it should be viewed with a slightly stronger shock mindset [5]. Long - term Supply and Demand - The long - term supply intensity is large. As the traditional peak season approaches, the actual start of downstream demand needs attention. Technically, there is a double golden cross [6]. Glass - Some production lines have been cold - repaired recently, and spot sales have improved. Market sentiment is optimistic due to policies, but actual demand remains to be observed. Technically, there is a double golden cross, and it fell again today. It should be viewed with a shock mindset [8]. Alumina - The industry's average production cost is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line, supporting the futures price. It should be viewed with a shock mindset [11]. Caustic Soda - The futures 05 contract may be oversold due to strong exports, many future maintenance expectations, and a strong basis. Alumina plants are commissioned smoothly, and short - term demand is not bad. From late March to April, there may be a supply - demand mismatch, and it is expected to bottom out and rebound [14]. Urea - The current daily production is high, supply is still loose, industrial demand is expected to weaken, and agricultural spring fertilization demand is about to end. It should be treated with high - level shock [17]. Soybeans - The 160000 - ton soybean auction had a low成交 rate. There are rumors of faster customs clearance of imported soybeans, and the limited supply from farmers supports the price. After a short - term sharp decline, it is in low - level shock consolidation [20].