美国关税政策扰动下，港股延续震荡走势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the long - term, there are three main investment lines with high allocation value in the Hong Kong stock market: the consumer sector may see improved performance and rising stock prices due to domestic policies; the technology sector is expected to rise continuously with policy support and industry trends; the high - dividend strategy in the Hong Kong stock market, especially high - dividend targets of central state - owned enterprises, is attractive and can provide stable returns [2]. - In 2025, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue rising as earnings recover steadily, but the impact of US trade policies and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm should be noted [49]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 This Week's Important Events 3.1.1 Domestic Aspect - From January to February 2025, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 2.8% year - on - year, 0.7 percentage points faster than the whole year of 2024. Their profits decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 3.0 percentage points compared to the whole year of 2024. The manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries showed obvious improvements [2][4]. 3.1.2 Overseas Aspect - On March 24, Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries buying Venezuelan oil and gas, effective April 2. On March 26, he said he would impose a 25% tariff on all non - US - made cars, and tariffs on the pharmaceutical and timber industries. The US 2 - month core PCE price index rose more than expected, with the year - on - year increase at 2.8% and the month - on - month increase at 0.4%, the highest since January 2024 [2][9]. 3.2 This Week's Review of the Hong Kong Stock Market 3.2.1 Index Gains and Losses - From March 24 to March 28, most global stock indices fell. The three major Hong Kong stock indices declined again, with the Hang Seng Index, Technology Index, and State - owned Enterprises Index falling 1.11%, 2.36%, and 0.82% respectively. Three Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices rose, and nine declined. The healthcare, raw materials, and conglomerates sectors led the gains, while the information technology, industrial, and financial sectors led the losses [2][14][16]. 3.2.2 Capital Flows - The average daily trading volume of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this week was HK$237.557 billion, a decrease of HK$49.847 billion from last week. The average daily short - selling amount was HK$29.347 billion, a decrease of HK$2.091 billion from last week. The average daily ratio of short - selling amount to trading volume was 12.48%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points from last week. Southbound funds had a net inflow of HK$37.18 billion this week, an increase of HK$14.155 billion from last week [2][21]. 3.2.3 Valuation and Risk Premium - As of March 28, the PE and PB of the Hang Seng Index were 10.34 times and 1.1 times respectively. The PE increased by 0.95% and the PB decreased by 0.49% compared to last Friday. The Hang Seng Index's risk - premium rate relative to the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield was 5.4%, at the 14% quantile since 2010. The Hang Seng Index's risk - premium rate relative to the 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond yield was 7.9%, at the 75% quantile since 2010. Industry valuations were highly differentiated [23][28][33]. 3.3 Investment Outlook for the Hong Kong Stock Market - In the long - term, there are three main investment lines: the consumer sector supported by policies, the technology sector with expected performance realization, and the high - dividend sector providing stable investment returns [49].