纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总-2025-03-31

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report For the Soda Ash Market - The most concentrated period of maintenance plans has ended, and inventory pressure will return. Although rigid demand has improved recently, the trend of oversupply remains unchanged. After end - users replenish inventory from middle - stream players, upstream order - taking faces pressure. The recommended strategy is to mainly short at high levels and avoid the positive feedback effect driven by upward - rushing sentiment [9]. For the Glass Market - Low supply exerts little pressure, and the inventory accumulation rate has significantly narrowed and is nearly flat; the inventory of futures - cash transactions needs to be digested. The short - term strategy should turn cautious, with the idea of taking profits on long positions, and then going long on far - month contracts at low prices after a pullback [167]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Soda Ash Market 3.1 Soda Ash Market Overview - Supply: The daily production level of soda ash plants has returned to a high level and is expected to increase in the near future. The export performance is good, while the import price window is not open. Some manufacturers have maintenance plans in April and May, but the involved production capacity is relatively small [8]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda ash from the float glass and photovoltaic glass sectors is expected to increase recently. End - users are replenishing inventory at low prices [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of soda ash plants and social inventory have decreased this week, but the long - term inventory accumulation pressure remains after the maintenance plans [8]. - Cost and Profit: The costs of ammonia - soda process and combined - soda process are relatively stable, and the profit of the combined - soda process has increased slightly [8]. - Strategy: Trend shorting at high levels is recommended, avoiding the positive feedback effect driven by upward - rushing sentiment [9]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - Production: The monthly production of soda ash shows seasonal fluctuations, and the current production is at a relatively high level [15]. - Import and Export: The current import volume is 0.55 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.42 million tons; the export volume is 15.14 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.39 million tons [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Futures - Spot Price Comparison: The prices of soda ash futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations over the years [23][25]. - Basis of Soda Ash Contracts: The basis of different soda ash contracts has different trends [28][30][31]. - Inter - Delivery Spread of Soda Ash Contracts: The inter - delivery spreads of different soda ash contracts also show different trends [33][34][35]. - Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread: The spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot have different trends [37][38][39]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - Shahe Region: The current market price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe region is 1383 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 567 yuan/ton [45]. - Regional Price Comparison: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions have different trends, with some regions showing price decreases [49]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - Start - Stop Situation: Some manufacturers are currently under maintenance or have reduced production loads, and some have planned maintenance in the future [85]. - Start - up Rate: The current domestic start - up rate of soda ash is 82.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.53 percentage points [86]. - Production of Heavy and Light Soda Ash: The current weekly production of heavy soda ash is 36.9 million tons, and that of light soda ash is 32.12 million tons [86]. - Cost and Profit: The costs and profits of ammonia - soda process and combined - soda process enterprises have different trends, and the price of synthetic ammonia also affects the cost of soda ash production [109]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - Demand for Heavy Soda Ash: The demand for heavy soda ash is mainly from the float glass and photovoltaic glass industries, and the demand is expected to increase [133]. - Weekly Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio: The weekly apparent consumption of heavy and light soda ash and the production - sales ratio have different trends [140]. - Photovoltaic Glass Price: The prices of photovoltaic glass of different specifications have different trends [143][144]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - Overall Inventory: The current inventory of soda ash enterprises is 163 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.78 million tons [148]. - Inventory by Region: The inventory of soda ash in different regions has different trends [157]. Glass Market 3.8 Glass Market Overview - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass has decreased slightly this week, and there are plans for production line cold - repairs and water - releases in the future [165]. - Demand: The apparent consumption has increased this week. After the recent stabilization and upward movement of the futures market, futures - cash traders and traders have replenished inventory, but the wait - and - see sentiment among middle - stream players has increased this week [165]. - Inventory: The factory inventory has decreased this week, and the inventory accumulation rate has significantly narrowed [165]. - Cost and Profit: The costs of natural - gas - fired, coal - gas - fired, and petroleum - coke - fired production lines are relatively stable, but most production capacities are in a loss - making state [165]. 3.9 Monthly Supply and Demand - Production: The monthly production of flat glass shows seasonal fluctuations, and the current production is at a relatively low level [172]. - Import and Export: The import and export volumes of float glass have different trends over the years [173][177]. 3.10 Basis and Spread - Futures - Spot Price Comparison: The prices of soda ash and glass futures and spot have shown certain fluctuations over the years [181][182]. - Basis of Glass Contracts: The basis of different glass contracts has different trends [186][187][188]. - Inter - Delivery Spread of Glass Contracts: The inter - delivery spreads of different glass contracts also show different trends [190][191][192]. - Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread: The spreads between glass and soda ash contracts and spot have different trends [195][196][197]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - Regional Price Comparison: The prices of float glass of different specifications in different regions have different trends, with some regions showing price increases [203]. 3.12 Glass Supply - Profit of Float Glass: The profits of float glass enterprises using different fuels have different trends, and the profit of coal - gas - fired enterprises has increased significantly this week [242].