聚丙烯产业链周报：反弹空间有限，继续偏弱震荡-2025-03-31

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The rebound space of the polypropylene market is limited, and it will continue to fluctuate weakly. The upstream production profit is expected to decline, and the inventory removal speed is ideal this week, but the inventory removal speed is expected to slow down slightly next week. The cost side fluctuates strongly this week, and the upward space is limited, and it is expected to decline slightly in the next two weeks. [1][7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions No relevant content provided. 3.2 Polypropylene Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: This week's production decreased slightly to 732,000 tons, and the maintenance loss decreased by 3,700 tons to 156,100 tons. Next week, some devices will resume production, and the production is expected to increase to 737,500 tons. The import volume remained stable at 75,000 tons, and the export volume was 37,500 tons. [6] - Demand: The apparent demand increased by 64,200 tons to 842,200 tons this week. According to the seasonality, the apparent demand is expected to be about 820,000 tons next week. [6] - Inventory: The total inventory decreased by 72,700 tons to 858,600 tons this week, and the inventory removal speed was ideal. The upstream inventory decreased by 59,000 tons to 641,700 tons, and the midstream inventory decreased by 13,700 tons to 216,900 tons. Next week, the inventory is expected to continue to decrease. [6] 3.3 Polypropylene Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis showed a weakening trend this week. The East China basis decreased by 40 to -40, the North China basis decreased by 50 to -100, and the South China basis decreased by 60 to -60. [8] - Spread: The monthly spread fluctuated, and there was no strong short - term driving force. The fiber -拉丝 spread remained unchanged at 200, and the copolymer -拉丝 spread increased by 10 to 260, which had a certain supporting effect on the pellet price. [8] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - Upstream: The upstream is under great production capacity pressure, with a pessimistic attitude and a focus on active sales. Although some devices are under maintenance and the operating rate has decreased significantly, the production decline is not obvious, and the upstream is still under some pressure. [10] - Midstream: The mid - stream sales situation is average, with mainly rigid demand transactions. [10] - Downstream: The downstream has rigid demand procurement, and there is no significant change in demand currently. [10] - Strategy: Consider reducing the long PP and short MA spread strategy in small quantities, and continue to operate after the callback. Adopt a range - bound thinking, and it is recommended to increase short PP orders at the current price. Sell call options. [10]