中泰期货聚乙烯产业链周报：产量增量继续兑现，建议震荡偏弱对待-2025-03-31

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The production increment of polyethylene continues to materialize, and it is recommended to treat the market with a weak and oscillatory outlook [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Recent Market Main Contradictions - This week, the domestic polyethylene production increased slightly, with the national output rising from 60.27 million tons last week to 61.64 million tons, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly next week due to the resumption of many maintenance devices. The import and export volumes remained unchanged, with imports at 28.89 million tons and exports at 2.50 million tons. The apparent demand was lower than expected this week, reaching 93.58 million tons, and is estimated to be 87.49 million tons next week according to seasonality. The inventory reduction speed was faster than expected, mainly due to the increase in apparent demand, but it is expected to accumulate slightly next week [5] 3.2 Polyethylene Industry Situation 3.2.1 Supply - In 2024, a total of 3.2 million tons of new polyethylene production capacity was put into operation, and in 2025, new production capacity such as Jilin Petrochemical's upgrade, Qinghai Damei Coal Industry, and ExxonMobil (Huizhou) is planned to be put into operation [18] 3.2.2 Cost - The price of crude oil is expected to oscillate, and the price of coal remains stable. The cost of polyethylene is oscillating, with the cost of oil - based PE increasing from 8393 to 8542, and the cost of coal - based PE remaining at 7352. The overall upstream profit is in a weak and oscillatory state [6] 3.2.3 Demand - The downstream demand is mainly based on rigid needs, and the apparent demand this week was lower than expected. The downstream profit situation varies, with the profit of some products such as film showing different trends [32][33][34] 3.2.4 Inventory - The inventory reduction speed this week was faster than expected, mainly due to the increase in apparent demand. The upstream inventory decreased, with the two - oil inventory decreasing from 38.93 million tons to 35.09 million tons, but it is expected to accumulate slightly next week [5] 3.3 Basis and Spread - The basis oscillated weakly this week, with the spot market weakening significantly. The monthly spread is expected to show a reverse arbitrage trend, and the spread between varieties is expected to decline slightly later. The LL - PP spread in the far - month contract is recommended to be temporarily withdrawn for observation [6] 3.4 Summary and Outlook - The upstream is still focused on rapid sales, with great pressure from new production capacity and a poor mentality. The mid - stream sales are average, and the downstream purchasing willingness is not strong. In terms of strategies, it is recommended to withdraw from the 5 - 9 spread, consider reducing a small amount of short - hedging orders for the far - month 05 contract and increasing them after a rebound, and adopt a strategy of selling call options [7]