Ping An Securities·2025-03-31 03:15Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [35] Core Views - The report indicates that the white liquor market remains stable, with a focus on high-performing companies. The market is expected to see single-digit positive growth in Q1 2025 for major white liquor companies, supported by strong performance from core products. Long-term demand recovery is anticipated with the implementation of consumer policies, although short-term tariff risks need to be monitored [6][4][8] - In the food sector, the report highlights the emergence of new products in the snack industry and suggests investment opportunities in the snack and catering supply chain. The snack industry is experiencing high growth due to channel and product advantages, while the catering industry is expected to stabilize and show slight recovery [6][9] Summary by Sections White Liquor Industry - The white liquor index saw a cumulative increase of 0.23% this week, with top performers including Jinshiyuan (+1.94%), Luzhou Laojiao (+1.24%), and Guizhou Moutai (+0.73%). Conversely, Yinjia Gongjiu (-3.05%), Huangtai Jiuye (-4.64%), and Yanshi Co. (-31.24%) were the worst performers [6] - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: high-end white liquor with strong demand (Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao), mid-range white liquor with ongoing national expansion (Shanxi Fenjiu), and real estate liquor with expanding price ranges (Yinjia Gongjiu, Jinshiyuan, Laobai Ganjiu, Gujing Gongjiu) [6][4] Food Industry - The food index experienced a cumulative decline of 0.41% this week, with top gainers being Guangming Meat Industry (+13.02%), Jiahe Food (+6.44%), and Yanjinpuzi (+5.33%). The worst performers included Xiwang Food (-7.24%), Lianhua Holdings (-9.29%), and Baiyang Co. (-12.25%) [6] - The report emphasizes the high growth potential in the snack sector and suggests monitoring companies like Three Squirrels and Yanjinpuzi. It also notes a potential slight recovery in the catering industry, recommending attention to related sectors such as beer, condiments, and frozen foods, with specific mentions of Yanjing Beer, Haitian Flavoring, and Anjui Foods [6][9] Individual Company Insights - Guizhou Moutai is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 15.44% in 2024, with a stable operational rhythm despite a weak macroeconomic environment [7] - Wuliangye plans to maintain a cash dividend of no less than 70% of its net profit for 2024-2026, aiming to bolster market confidence [7] - Luzhou Laojiao is expected to see growth driven by its strong brand foundation and strategic market expansion [7] - Shanxi Fenjiu reported a revenue increase of 11.4% in Q3 2024, with a focus on marketing reforms and channel expansion [7] - In the food sector, East Peng Beverage reported a 45.34% revenue increase, while Haitian Flavoring showed a 9.38% revenue growth, indicating resilience in their respective markets [10][11]