南华尿素产业链数据周报20250330：观点：等待转弱时机-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The urea price will continue to fluctuate, and it is necessary to observe whether the grass - roots demand around the Tomb - Sweeping Festival can exceed expectations. The agricultural demand season has strong speculative nature in the futures market, and the fundamentals are in a gradually balanced supply - demand pattern [5] Summary by Directory Supply - This cycle, some enterprises such as Shandong Union Chemical, Shanxi Lanhua Science & Technology Venture, etc. had maintenance, and some including Shandong Runyin Biological Chemical and Shandong Union Chemical resumed production. Next week, the daily urea output will be around 19.2 - 19.7 million tons [4] Inventory - As of March 26, 2025, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises in China was 867,800 tons, a decrease of 170,200 tons compared with the previous period, and the inventory of major ports was 130,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with the previous period [4] Demand - In agriculture, the planting of southern rice is progressing, and agricultural demand is slowly following up. In industry, compound fertilizer plants are in the high - nitrogen fertilizer production stage, with relatively good purchases, but high - price raw materials increase the pressure on them, and replenishment is becoming more cautious. Other industrial sectors maintain just - in - time procurement [4][5] Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong was 1910 (05 basis 17), and in Henan was 1920 (05 basis 27). Recently, the spot trading of urea has been active, and the price has continued to rise. After the price increase, the trading has weakened [5]