Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For glass, the production and sales are starting to weaken marginally. The apparent demand for float glass from January to March is expected to decline by 7 - 8%. Although the demand has improved month - on - month, the overall improvement is limited. The supply remains in a low - level fluctuation state, but the cold - repair of production lines in the first quarter was slightly less than expected, and the ignition rhythm was relatively fast. There are still differences in the market's view of long - term demand. In the context of a significant year - on - year decline in supply, there may be a mismatch during the peak season. The 05 contract continues to be a subject of speculation, and the spot price in Hubei is still relatively low. Further observation of production, sales, and spot trends is needed [3]. - For纯碱, the supply is gradually recovering. With the end of major maintenance and the expected mass production of new capacity, the supply of heavy soda ash is expected to shift from balance to surplus. The market is still in a long - term surplus expectation, and the inventory is at a historical high with obvious upward pressure. The downstream is replenishing inventory at low prices, and the willingness to replenish inventory is relatively strong around 1350 - 1400. The rigid demand for heavy soda ash, deduced from the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass, has improved slightly month - on - month, and the finished product inventory of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline significantly month - on - month. A further decline in price requires continuous inventory accumulation and price cuts by soda ash plants [4][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Supply - The current daily melting volume is 158,000 tons. There are both cold - repairs and ignitions, and the daily melting volume is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [3]. Inventory - As of March 27, 2025, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises is 67.012 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.448 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 3.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 0.11%. The inventory days are 30.2 days, a decrease of 1.1 days compared with the previous period [95]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the profits of glass production lines using different processes are as follows: - 192 yuan for natural gas, + 89 yuan for coal - gasification, and - 20 yuan for petroleum coke [3]. Demand - As of March 17, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises is 8 days (an increase of 1.2 days), a month - on - month increase of 17.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 35.3%. The raw material inventory of glass deep - processing is 8.6 days (an increase of 1.1 days), a month - on - month increase of 14.7%, and a year - on - year decrease of 31.2% [3]. Strategy - Observe the production, sales, and spot price trends of the 05 contract, especially in Hubei where the spot price is relatively low [3]. Soda Ash Supply - The weekly output is 690,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 37,900 tons), including 321,200 tons of light soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 16,400 tons) and 369,000 tons of heavy soda ash (a month - on - month increase of 21,500 tons). With the end of major maintenance and the expected mass production of new capacity, the daily output in April may reach a new high [4]. Inventory - The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.63 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 57,800 tons (a decrease of 4,800 tons for light soda ash and a decrease of 53,000 tons for heavy soda ash). The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 427,500 tons (a decrease of 5,000 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouse is 2.06 million tons, and the inventory is decreasing from a high level [4]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the combined soda process (per double - ton) is + 212 yuan, and the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process is - 52 yuan/ton [4]. Demand - Due to the rush - installation wave, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to increase, and the finished product inventory of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline significantly month - on - month. The daily melting volume of float glass is fluctuating at a low level. The rigid demand for heavy soda ash, deduced from float and photovoltaic glass, has improved month - on - month, and the inventory of the upper and middle reaches is at a high level [4]. Strategy - The market is in a long - term surplus expectation. Observe whether there is continuous inventory accumulation and price cuts by soda ash plants [5].
南华玻璃纯碱数据周报20250330-2025-03-31
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-03-31 03:10