南华聚酯周报20250330：关注聚酯减产力度，EG估值承压-2025-03-31

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - For MEG, attention should be paid to the intensity of polyester production cuts, and EG valuation is under pressure. The terminal demand for weaving has peaked, and the high - level operation of polyester yarn is expected to decline. Although the supply - demand of ethylene glycol will enter a de - stocking inflection point in April, the price is still expected to be under pressure overall. In the short term, the price is expected to consolidate at a low level, and it is recommended to operate within a range. For bottle chips, as the start - up increases, the supply - demand pattern will weaken, and the processing fee is expected to be under pressure [2][3]. - For PX, the supply - demand structure is good, and it is advisable to cautiously go long on dips. The recent supply - demand pattern of PX is favorable, and the de - stocking trend continues. PXN is around 200, and it is generally recommended to buy at low levels. The driving force for PTA processing fees is limited, and it will maintain range - bound fluctuations [6][7]. - For PTA, it fluctuates with the cost side. The subsequent maintenance plans of PTA are still numerous, and the overall price fluctuates with limited driving force [9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs MEG - Inventory: The inventory at East China ports has reached 76.7 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons compared to the previous period. The apparent inventory at ports is expected to decrease by about 60,000 tons next Monday [2]. - Device: Anhui Haoyuan's 300,000 - ton device has recently reduced its load to replace the catalyst; Sinochem's 300,000 - ton device tripped last weekend and is expected to restart soon. Overseas, a 700,000 - ton device in the US has been shut down for maintenance since mid - March, expected to last until around the end of April [2]. - Supply: The overall supply load remains basically stable, with an increase in ethylene - based production at Gulei Petrochemical and a decrease in coal - based production at Haoyuan and a trip at Sinochem. The coal - based load has been adjusted down to around 68% [2]. - Demand: The total polyester load has continued to increase to 92.9% with the restart and load increase of bottle chips. However, the negative feedback from the terminal has intensified, and both filament and staple fiber have proposed joint production - cut and price - maintenance plans due to profit and inventory pressures [2]. - Profit: Recently, the cost of raw material polymerization has rebounded slightly, but due to weak terminal demand, the price increase of the polyester segment is weak, and the profits of various products have been compressed to varying degrees [2]. PX - Supply: Recently, the maintenance of Yangzi, Jiujiang, and Zhejiang Petrochemical has been implemented, and the PX load has decreased. Some disproportionation and other operations at home and abroad are not economically viable, and some device maintenance has been carried out. The maintenance plans of some Korean devices have been extended [6]. - Demand: Although some PTA maintenance has resumed, there are still many subsequent maintenance plans [6]. - Supply - demand Pattern: The recent supply - demand pattern of PX is good, and the de - stocking trend continues. PXN is around 200, and it is generally recommended to buy at low levels. The driving force for PTA processing fees is limited, and it will maintain range - bound fluctuations [7]. PTA - Supply: There are still many subsequent maintenance plans for PTA. In April, Jiayuan, Energy Investment, Baihong, and YS Hainan have maintenance plans; in May, Formosa and Shenghong have maintenance plans; in June, Fuhai Chuang has maintenance plans [9]. - Demand: The polyester start - up continues to increase with the load increase of bottle chips, but the negative feedback from the terminal has intensified, and the price increase of the polyester segment is weak [2][9]. - Price: The overall price fluctuates with limited driving force [10].