南华苯乙烯产业链数据周报：外盘纯苯止跌-2025-03-31

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In late March, petroleum benzene entered the maintenance season, with some plants shutting down and supply starting to decrease. For hydrobenzene, supply also began to decline due to poor profits. The overall downstream demand remained stable, with minor fluctuations in the operating rates of major downstream sectors. In April, domestic pure benzene will face a double - reduction in supply and demand, but imports are expected to remain high, making it difficult to reduce inventory in March and April, and the near - term fundamentals will continue to be weak. Although the price of pure benzene in the European and American markets stopped falling in the second half of the week, the sustainability of gasoline blending demand needs to be monitored [3]. - This week, the operating rate of styrene increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of EPS declined significantly, while those of PS and ABS remained high. Except for the inventory reduction of EPS, the inventories of PS and ABS continued to accumulate. With the continuous weakening of pure benzene at the raw material end and poor terminal demand, the price center of downstream products in the industrial chain moved down, and the profits of the 3S segment were compressed. In April, many large styrene plants plan to undergo maintenance, and the supply - demand pattern of styrene is expected to strengthen. However, due to the continuous weakness of pure benzene, the styrene market is likely to fluctuate in the short term, and the strengthening of the styrene pattern will be more reflected in the processing margin. Currently, the spread between pure benzene and styrene is difficult to expand further beyond 1300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to taking profits when expanding the processing margin. Future focus should be on the trend of external pure benzene and the negative feedback of styrene downstream demand [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Supply and Inventory: As of March 27, the operating rate of petroleum benzene was 76.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.9%; the operating rate of hydrobenzene was 58.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.4%. As of March 24, 2025, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 140,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.70%. In February 2025, South Korea exported a total of 273,200 tons of pure benzene, of which 229,000 tons were exported to China [3]. - Price and Spread: The prices of most pure benzene products decreased this week. For example, the price of pure benzene in the East China market dropped from 6,775 yuan/ton last week to 6,700 yuan/ton this week. The spreads between different pure benzene products also showed certain changes, such as the spread between styrene spot and pure benzene spot increasing by 5 yuan/ton to 1,280 yuan/ton [4][5]. - Monthly Balance Sheet: The monthly balance sheet shows the production, import, consumption, and inventory changes of pure benzene from January to December 2025 and January - May 2026. For example, in March 2025, the total production was 247,700 tons, the total consumption was 219,400 tons, and the inventory increased by 11,500 tons [8]. - New Device Commissioning Plan: From 2024 to 2025, there were many new pure benzene device commissioning plans. In 2024, the total new capacity was 1.35 million tons, and in 2025, it was 2.12 million tons. The annual capacity growth rates in 2024 and 2025 were 5.61% and 8.34% respectively [101]. - Maintenance Situation: There were many domestic pure benzene plants under maintenance from March 21 - 27, 2025, with a total weekly loss of 34,300 tons. South Korean aromatic plants also had maintenance plans in 2025, such as Hanwha Total's two plants planning to be shut down for two months starting in mid - August [102][104]. Styrene - Supply and Inventory: As of March 27, the operating rate of styrene was 75.3%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. As of March 24, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 153,500 tons, a decrease of 20,800 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 11.93%. As of March 27, the factory inventory of styrene was 223,700 tons, a decrease of 21,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 8.66% [3]. - Price and Spread: The prices of most styrene products showed certain fluctuations this week. For example, the price of styrene FOB South Korea dropped from 976 US dollars/ton last week to 960 US dollars/ton this week. The spreads between different styrene products also changed, such as the spread between styrene 4 - month paper and pure benzene 4 - month paper increasing by 10 yuan/ton to 1,310 yuan/ton [4][5]. - Monthly Balance Sheet: The monthly balance sheet shows the production, import, consumption, and inventory changes of styrene from January to December 2025 and January - May 2026. For example, in March 2025, the total production was 114,500 tons, the total consumption was 117,800 tons, and the inventory decreased by 14,000 tons [160]. - New Device Commissioning Plan: From 2024 to 2025, there were many new styrene device commissioning plans. In 2024, the total new capacity was 950,000 tons, and in 2025, it was 1.57 million tons. The annual capacity growth rates in 2024 and 2025 were 4.46% and 7.22% respectively [203]. - Maintenance Situation: From March 21 - 27, 2025, many domestic styrene plants were under maintenance, with a total maintenance loss of 51,300 tons. There were also maintenance and shutdown situations for styrene plants outside the Chinese mainland, such as INEOS Styrolution in Canada planning to close its factory in June 2026 [204][205]. Downstream Products (EPS, PS, ABS) - Supply and Inventory: The operating rate of EPS was 51.22%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46%; the operating rate of PS was 68.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%; the operating rate of ABS was 72.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The inventory of EPS enterprises was about 33,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.05%; the finished - product inventory of PS was 127,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.6%; the finished - product inventory of ABS was 197,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [3]. - Profit: The profit of EPS was around 278 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend; the comprehensive profit of PS was around 63 yuan/ton, also showing a downward trend; the profit of ABS was around - 166 yuan/ton, showing a downward trend [3]. - Device Maintenance: Some devices of styrene's three major downstream products had dynamic changes, such as some PS plants restarting and some ABS plants planning maintenance [207]. Terminal Products - Refrigerators: The production plan for refrigerators in April was 8.09 million units, a 6.7% decrease compared with the actual production in the same period last year [252]. - Air - conditioners: The production plan for household air - conditioners in April was 24 million units, a 9.1% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year [257]. - Washing Machines: The production plan for washing machines in April was 7.4 million units, a slight 1.4% increase compared with the actual production in the same period last year [263].